Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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155 FXUS64 KEWX 192319 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Key Messages: *Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue into early Thursday. *Confidence in the highest rainfall totals is seen across the far southern portions of the area where the Flood Watch remains. *Rain amounts have trended down overall. *Isolated tornado threat remains across our southeastern-most counties into this evening. Discussion: Rain bands from what is now the first named storm of the season, Alberto, are moving in over South Central Texas with some embedded thunderstorms. So far, rainfall rates have been tame, but as heavier showers move into the region, especially south of I-10, any embedded thunderstorms could contain rainfall rates of 1-2"/hour. There is still a low end threat for flooding and flash flooding, and the Flood Watch remains in effect for our southern tier of counties through midday Thursday. Overall, rainfall totals are expected to remain between 1-3 inches over the southern CWA, with between 0.5-2" for the remainder of the area. The 12Z sounding out of CRP showed PWATs in excess of 2.5" along with a nearly saturated profile all the way up to 100mb. Long, skinny profiles, along with modest CAPE and high moisture environments can produce significant tropical rainfall. Despite lowered amounts, this is still a beneficial event, as it will act to keep temperatures down during what is usually one of the hottest and most humid months of the year and it should help limit short term drought impacts as we add some moisture to area soils without widespread severe weather. Speaking of severe weather, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tornadoes over the Coastal Plains, but the primary concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall and the low end chance for flooding. The heavier rain threat should end from east to west by sunrise Thursday, but there is still a threat for widely scattered showers and storms to develop Thursday afternoon. The primary threat would be locally heavy rainfall, but widespread flooding and flash flooding are not expected at this time beyond 18Z Thursday. Temperatures will remain some 5-15 degrees below normal for late June as well, so the first official day of Summer will certainly not feel like it across South Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As the remnants of Alberto dissipate over Mexico there will still be a deep, moist airmass over South Central Texas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday with the best chances along and south of I-10/Hwy 90. The low level flow over the weekend and early next week will be from the southeast. This will keep a warm, moist airmass in place. A weak upper ridge will allow for isolated convection driven by daytime heating each day Saturday through Wednesday over the Coastal Plains. Some days the storms will spread toward the west and north. Chances will mostly be slight and most places will remain dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the long term to back above normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Light to moderate rain with some occasional embedded heavier rainfall in association with the tropical moisture from Alberto to the south will continue to advance and pivot westward through South- Central Texas through this evening into the overnight hours. The activity starts to decrease after midnight across our northern and eastern most zone. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Thursday with the help from daytime heating. Expect for ceilings and visibilities to trend mainly in the MVFR to IFR range tonight but some VFR conditions persist early in the TAF period at KAUS and KDRT. Conditions will improve to VFR levels at all sites into Thursday afternoon and evening as well. Gusty winds persist, especially in the heaviest rain activity, with gusts peaking in the 25 to 30 knot range. The winds begin east-northeasterly and shift to out of the east then east-southeast with time through the period as Alberto advances inland into Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 90 75 93 / 60 30 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 90 74 91 / 60 30 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 88 74 91 / 80 50 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 73 88 74 90 / 50 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 90 77 93 / 80 60 60 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 89 73 90 / 50 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 88 74 89 / 90 50 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 89 72 90 / 70 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 90 74 90 / 50 30 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 89 75 90 / 80 50 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 89 76 91 / 80 50 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Atascosa-De Witt-Dimmit- Frio-Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca-Maverick-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady