


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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729 FXUS63 KGLD 071847 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1247 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms remain possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 This afternoon and evening, scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop in our westernmost areas around the 3-6pm MT timeframe and progress eastward throughout the evening hours. Conditions will be favorable for severe weather, and we are outlooked in an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather (level 3 out of 5) for our area, especially for our northwestern counties. The main threats will change as we go through the event. For this afternoon and early evening (3-6pm MT) for our westernmost areas, all modes of severe weather will be possible (large hail, severe winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out). It is worth noting that we have the greatest confidence in the severe wind threat. The hail threat and tornado risk are quite conditional and will depend on the wind direction and moisture availability among other factors. As these scattered to numerous storms progress eastward toward our central and eastern areas, they will merge and form into a line, per the latest model guidance. Once this occurs, generally around 6-9pm MT and later, the primary weather hazard will be the straight line wind threat. Generally, as it progresses eastward through our central and eastern areas tonight, there is the potential for 60-75mph winds associated with these storms. Some of the model guidance has been trending toward trying to weaken the system as it moves eastward while other models keep it strong through the area. Looking at the model soundings, with plenty of CAPE, shear, moisture, etc, it seems reasonable that the system would maintain strength as it progresses through the area or at the very least, would not weaken as much as some of the models indicate. But subtle mesoscale differences could play a major role in the development and overall strength of this system, so we will be monitoring closely through the evening hours for changes. Additionally, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall for our area. This risk will mainly be during the 3-6pm timeframe for our westernmost areas as those scattered to numerous storms develop, since they will have a slower storm motion. Once the system forms a line, it will be a lot more progressive, and so the heavy rainfall risk will be decreased. Generally, we are expecting 1 inch or less of rainfall from this system. Overall, severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening. The greatest threat will be for damaging winds 60-75 mph, but large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially for the northwesternmost areas. Stay weather aware this evening and have multiple ways to receive warnings, even if you will be asleep! MSW && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Generally, weak ridging will persist over the area for the long term forecast Tuesday through the weekend. As a result, there will be the potential for some isolated to scattered storms daily in the afternoon and evening hours through the week and weekend. The best location for these storms would be mainly for our western half of the area, but everywhere could see storms daily. Generally, there is still some uncertainty as to the severity of these storms. At least for Tuesday, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather, so a few of these storms could be severe with the main risks being winds greater than 60mph and large hail tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, the storms look to be primarily sub-severe, but we will continue to monitor for changes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as we go toward the end of the workweek. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Conditions will drop to MVFR for a few hours at times this evening as a line of storms moves through the area. TEMPO groups are in the forecast to reflect these conditions at both airports. Conditions will improve to VFR late tonight / early tomorrow once the system moves through the area. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees are expected throughout the forecast at both airports. At GLD, some wind shear of 60kts will be expected for 1-2 hours as these storms progress through the area generally around 7-9pm MT. MSW && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...Williams