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000
FXUS62 KFFC 230720
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020


.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Unfortunately, the much-needed dry weather will be coming to an end
through the short term. The daylight hours today will be salvaged,
however, as exiting surface high pressure hangs on, though high and
mid-level clouds will be on the increase through the day. By late
evening, a few isentropic showers will initially begin to increase
in northwest Georgia, and shower coverage will continue to increase
across north Georgia into Monday morning.

As the upper shortwave trough and surface low track from the
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley through the day Monday, the
surface cold front will continue its eastward advancement toward the
Southeast. Widespread rainfall will continue to overspread the area
through the day Monday as the warm front lifts northward with the
greatest coverage and heavier rainfall rates increasing Monday
afternoon. A couple of days of dry weather have helped lower streams
and rivers, but increasing rainfall rates beginning Monday afternoon
may begin to lead to some rises on local waterways and localized
minor flooding issues. However, significant widespread hydrological
issues are not expected at this time given current forecast QPF.
While an embedded thunderstorm or two is possible Monday afternoon,
instability will be insufficient for widespread thunderstorm
activity.

Otherwise, much of northeast Georgia will remain under the influence
of a surface wedge through the day, making for a raw and wet Monday.
Temperatures in these areas will struggle to rise above 50 degrees,
while areas in central Georgia south of the warm front will warm
into the 60s.

RW


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

No big changes made to the general trends through the extended
forecast period. Biggest rainfall totals associated with the system
early in the week are centered across our central Georgia counties,
generally 1.5-2.5 inches along and south of the fall line. Still
seeing sufficient instability for thunder Monday night across the
area, lingering in the far south Tuesday. Models still having
difficulty generating more than chance PoPs with the secondary short
wave Wednesday-Wednesday night, and very little QPF. Should see some
isolated to scattered precipitation into Wednesday night for some
mix and/or change-over to snow across the far north. With very
limited moisture to work with, not seeing much chance for
accumulations right now, but we will need to keep a close eye on the
trends over the next few model cycles.

Good shot of cold air pushes in for the end of the week into next
weekend. Another short wave sweeps through the region Friday night
into Saturday, but still looking at very limited moisture available
for any precipitation.

20


&&



.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the end of this TAF
period before lower cigs begin to encroach, though cigs in the
080-120 range will increase after 18z. There is a chance for a
shower at ATL sites after 06-08z Monday. Near calm winds this
morning will be SW at 5 kts or less after 15z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  43  51  49 /   5  40  90 100
Atlanta         55  44  53  51 /  10  50 100  90
Blairsville     53  38  47  46 /  10  70 100  90
Cartersville    55  42  52  50 /  10  60 100  90
Columbus        59  47  61  57 /   5  30  90  90
Gainesville     55  42  48  47 /   5  50 100  90
Macon           60  46  61  56 /   5  20  80  90
Rome            54  42  52  50 /  20  70 100  90
Peachtree City  57  43  56  52 /  10  50  90  90
Vidalia         64  48  68  58 /   5  20  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...RW