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000
FXUS62 KFFC 051937
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
The main feature in the short term period is a closed upper-level
low that will dive southeastward through the ArkLaTex today, then
transition to a shortwave trough as it pushes across MS/AL/GA
tonight through tomorrow. A surface low will develop in the northern
Gulf tomorrow in response to the upper-level forcing, but the low
will remain well south of the CWA as high pressure builds into the
state from the north. As a result, moisture will be quite limited
across the CWA tonight and Saturday, with PWATs generally under 0.5
inch. CAMs suggest the possibility for some sprinkles across the CWA
tonight, but given the mid-level cloud deck that will be in place
with dry air from ~700 mb to the surface, I am maintaining
essentially no PoPs across the CWA. Lows will range from the mid-
and upper 30s north, to lower to mid-40s south.

Saturday will bring a transition to northwest flow aloft as the
aforementioned system exits to our east. Mid-level clouds will
gradually clear through the late morning and early afternoon,
keeping highs capped in the lower 50s to near 60. Lows heading into
Sunday morning will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

See the "Fire Weather" section below for more information on the
expected fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening and
tomorrow.

Martin


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated for the extended
portion of the forecast. There is some potential into next weekend
for some isold/sct shra up north, but coverage at this time remains
low.

High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and remain the
dominant weather feature for the next seven days. The ridge axis is
expected to slide offshore by the middle of next week, with the
surface flow switching to are more southerly direction, increasing
the low level moisture. Below normal temperatures are anticipated
through the weekend, but he warm up begins next week with values
well above normal for this time of year expected.


NListemaa


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidities will remain at 25% or below for much of the
forecast area through the afternoon. Coupled with 10-hour fuel
moisture of 8% or less, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the
entire forecast area until 7 PM this evening. Cloud cover associated
with a passing upper-level system tomorrow (Saturday) will mitigate
fire weather concerns, but the northern tier of the forecast area
will still need to be monitored for minimum RHs approaching ~25%.

Low RH values are expected to continue into the weekend, but winds
will remain below any critical values. NW winds on Sunday should
switch over to the NE overnight Sunday or early Monday morning.
Winds will remain easterly through the end of the week. By
Thursday/Friday, winds may try to go more S/SSW. Wind speeds through
the period should be fairly light across most locales and averaging
10mph or less.

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period at all TAF sites. Mid- and high-level clouds
will increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Some
isolated sprinkles are possible across the forecast area tonight
mainly after 02z. Cigs will fall to around 6000 ft by ~10z-12z
before scattering out late Saturday morning and early afternoon.
Winds at AHN, MCN, and CSG are E at 4-7 kts and will remain that
way through the period. At the metro ATL TAF sites, winds should
generally be NNW at 4-7 kts until ~10z-12z Saturday, at which
point they will switch to NE.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on timing of wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  56  33  61 /  10   5   0   0
Atlanta         42  55  35  60 /  10   5   0   0
Blairsville     34  52  28  54 /  10   5   0   0
Cartersville    39  56  32  60 /  10   5   0   0
Columbus        46  60  37  64 /  10   5   0   0
Gainesville     40  55  34  59 /  10   5   0   0
Macon           44  58  34  64 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            38  58  32  62 /  10   5   0   0
Peachtree City  42  56  34  61 /  10   5   0   0
Vidalia         45  58  37  60 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Martin