013
FXUS62 KFFC 081727
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible each afternoon.

    - Heat Index values as high as 100-104 degrees possible today
      and tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

For today, the mid-level pattern will continue to be
characterized by fairly persistent troughing -- lingering through
at least late week. The combination of series of shortwaves
rounding the bases of the broader eastward-translating troughs and
moisture transport along the western edge of the Bermuda High
will support a return to the diurnally-driven thunderstorm chances
characteristic of summertime. A moisture-rich, higher PWAT
(1.5-2") airmass will continue to fill in across the forecast area
over the next few days, and convective coverage will increase as
it does so, with chances for scattered to numerous, perhaps even
widespread, thunderstorms across all of north and central Georgia
through Wednesday. Instability will be on the lower side by
summer standards -- on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg -- so not
expecting much in the way of severe storm activity. However, an
isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe storm impact (namely
an isolated damaging wind gust) cannot be ruled out for the most
advantageous updrafts.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s for all except far
northeast Georgia, which should remain in the upper 70s to 80s. For
Wednesday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler under the
influence of greater cloud cover from more numerous storms. With
surging moisture and thus humidity, widespread maximum "feels like"
temperatures will be between 100 to 104 degrees through midweek,
generally bubbling right under Heat Advisory criteria (though
isolated pockets within the southern and eastern halves of the area
may briefly feel like 105). Given relatively patchy nature, not
anticipating product issuance at this time, but will continue to
monitor. Lows will drop into the 60s to mid-70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Key Messages:

  - Rain chances pick up by the end of the week as moisture
continues to filter in, before going to a more normal isolated to
scattered again by early next week.

  - Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week,
increasing to the lower to mid 90s by the beginning of next week
that could bring higher "feels like" temps back to the area.

Forecast:

Moisture continues to return into the CWA across the beginning of
the long term forecast, bringing widespread diurnally driven rain
and thunderstorm chances that will increase into Friday and that
should stick around through the weekend. Several systems will move
by to the north of the CWA through this period, and while none of
them will drive any kind of frontal system into the area, all will
pull up moisture from the Gulf to bring that real nice July in
Georgia feeling we all know and love with air you can wear. Some
uncertainty in place across the model suites on this, with the GFS
ensemble being a bit more aggressive on the formation of a surface
low across the midwest on Friday when compared with the Euro suite,
but the differences for our area should be relatively small.

The system expected to clip by to the north on Thursday could drive
a minor severe threat across NE and far eastern parts of Georgia.
Some weak shear is noted moving across the Appalachians during the
day. Terrain should help to provide some additional lift to get
storms going during the afternoon. These should move off the
terrain, and can`t rule out some minor organization of outflows
that could bring some strong to severe winds to the area. A
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) currently clips the very edges of NE
GA. Severe chances look low through the rest of the period at this
time.

Through the weekend, uncertainty increases in the upper level
pattern to the north, which does lend to some uncertainty in PoPs
across the area, especially as the upper levels may be
increasingly stagnant and unable to "refresh" after multiple days
and rounds of convection heating the upper levels. Diurnal rain
chances are likely through Sunday, and some decrease happens into
Monday as a subtropical ridge may settle in. If PoPs decrease,
expect the temps and "feels like" temps to increase. Current
forecast brings us back into widespread lower to mid 90s for
temps, with many areas in the triple digits for the "feels like"
temps. Will need to watch this period going forward.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Scattered convection has begun to develop across north/central GA,
warranting a TEMPO for TSRA from 18-22Z at all sites except for
PDK/RYY, where a PROB30 for TSRA has been maintained. Aside from
some patchy MVFR visibility restrictions in far northwest GA
(including RYY) early Wednesday morning, conditions are expected
to be VFR through the period with scattered cu between 040-060 in
the afternoon hours. Winds will be W at 4-7 kts this afternoon,
diminishing to 4 kts or less after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on coverage and timing of afternoon TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  74  93  72 /  20  10  60  40
Atlanta         95  74  93  73 /  40  20  60  40
Blairsville     89  66  87  65 /  40  20  70  60
Cartersville    95  72  93  71 /  20  10  60  50
Columbus        95  75  94  74 /  30  10  60  30
Gainesville     94  74  92  72 /  20  10  60  50
Macon           95  74  94  73 /  30  20  60  30
Rome            93  72  91  71 /  30  20  60  50
Peachtree City  95  72  93  71 /  30  20  60  40
Vidalia         95  75  93  73 /  50  30  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...King