Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 070520 AAC
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service
Peachtree City GA 1220 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

...06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track for this evening as mid-upper level clouds
are exiting the CWA. Cool night ahead with low temps in the 30s
across the area. Temps will slowly begin to climb for the week
starting tomorrow, with highs expected in the upper 50s to low 60s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... A shortwave trough will
round the base of the larger scale eastern-CONUS trough through the
evening, exiting southern GA/northern FL and pulling the associated
moisture with it. Meanwhile, a sprawling area of surface high
pressure will spread into the state from the north and west tonight.
Lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s, as a clear to mostly
clear sky allows for radiational cooling overnight and early
tomorrow morning.

At the upper levels, a broad ridge will build over much of the U.S.
on Sunday, keeping surface high pressure in place through the day
from the Great Lakes down to the northern Gulf. Highs will generally
be a few degrees warmer tomorrow -- in the mid-50s to mid-60s -- as
plentiful sunshine allows the airmass to modify.

Martin

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... High pressure and dry
conditions are anticipated for much of the extended portion of the
forecast. There is some potential for a frontal passage by the end
of the week, but the long term models are in disagreement with this
system.

High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the
end of the week. The models begin to diverge Thursday into early
Friday in the mid levels and at the surface as a frontal boundary
tries to push southward out of the OH and TN Valleys. The ECMWF has
a stronger shortwave move through the Great Lakes with a flatter
ridge in the Gulf. The GFS has a stronger ridge in the Gulf as a low
pressure system digs in the desert southwest, keeping that stronger
shortwave further north. Either way, don`t have confidence that if
that front makes it to the CWA it will move through into southern
GA. The nearly zonal flow from the flatter ridge in the Gulf (ECMWF)
doesn`t promote that solution. For now, will take the blend for pops
as they are generally in the 20 to 30 percent range. This isn`t much
of a change from the previous forecast. QPF should remain minimal,
even if the ECMWF solution proves correct as the boundary doesn`t
have a lot of moisture associated with it`s passage.

So, very minimal chances for precipitation for the next seven days.
As of right now, the best chances for more widespread measurable
precip looks to be late next weekend into early next week.

NListemaa

FIRE WEATHER... Minimum RHs will generally be around 35%-45% this
afternoon and early evening, though portions of far northern Georgia
will drop to 25% or less for a couple hours. 10-hour fuel moistures
are quite low (7%-8%), but with winds well below criteria and the
short duration of criteria minimum RHs, no Fire Danger Statement has
been issued today. Tomorrow (Sunday), on the other hand, could
warrant a Fire Danger Statement as much of the CWA could have
minimum RHs at 25% or below for 4 hours or more. In addition, full
sunshine should allow fuel moistures to drop back to criteria in the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. light,
generally northwest, winds through 12Z will become north to
northeast 5-10kt by 14-15Z, then settle back to northwest to north
after 18Z. Wind speeds diminish to 2-6kt after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          33  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         33  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     27  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    30  60  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        36  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     32  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           34  63  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            31  62  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         36  61  35  65 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...20


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