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000
FXUS62 KFFC 051135
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 AM EST Sat Dec 5 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Regional analysis continues to show surface low lifting rapidly
through the mid atlantic states and leaving the local area in a cool
air advection and NW flow pattern. Still some wrap around low clouds
to deal with across the northern tier which are more pronounced than
model projections but still only look temporary.
Temperatures cooling close to guidance numbers with upper 30s North
to lower 40s for the south at this hour.

For the remainder of today, expect mostly sunny skies and no pops as
ridge at the surface builds in from the west. In the wake of the
cold front, temperatures will be near climo with mid 50s north to
around 60 for the south. As winds subside and skies remain mostly
clear, improved radiational cooling conditions will allow for lows
around freezing for areas north of the metro.

Southern stream system moving through Texas on Sunday will quickly
eject in to the lower Mississippi Valley for the afternoon hours.
Increased moisture and isentropic lift over the cool dome in place
will lead to an increase in pops. Through the end of the short term
period, only going slight chance at this time as the bulk of the
moisture arrives after 00Z.

Deese

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
The main concern for the long term will be Sunday Night through
Monday as the models continue to struggle handling moisture and an
upper level trough forecast to move across the Ern U.S and associated
short waves within the longer wave trough. All in all, rain chances
look to be on the low end and any precip amounts only light.

One thing we will need to monitor is the potential for a rain snow
mix, most likely over the higher elevations of the mountains, but
possibly briefly a little farther south. At this time, any
accumulations would most likely be limited to the high elevations
and be less than 1/2 inch.

Once this upper system passes, the rest of the long term, Tuesday
through Friday, is expected to be dry.

For the most part, forecast temperatures are expected to run within
about 2 to 8 degrees of normal, favoring above normal Sunday night then
below normal Monday through Wednesday, then mostly above normal Thursday
and Friday.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... Some wrap around MVFR clouds remain well north of
the ATL terminals but should remain there for the balance of the
TAF period allowing for continued VFR conditions. Winds have been
settled to around 10 kts overnight but  back to low end gusts for
ATL for this afternoon.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  34  58  40 /   0   0  10  20
Atlanta         54  36  56  40 /   0   0  20  20
Blairsville     49  29  54  33 /   0   0  10  20
Cartersville    55  32  56  36 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus        59  37  60  41 /   0   0  20  20
Gainesville     55  35  55  39 /   0   0  10  20
Macon           60  35  62  41 /   0   0  20  20
Rome            57  32  56  37 /   0   0  20  20
Peachtree City  57  32  58  38 /   0   0  20  20
Vidalia         60  39  62  46 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese