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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061618 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1118 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021



..UPDATE...

Updated temperatures and dew points using the HRRR to capture
trends this morning. Surface-to-850 mb layer remains quite dry,
though mixing down of moisture aloft will aid in keeping RHs
higher today than yesterday. Aside from some isolated locales
(mainly across portions of north Georgia), minimum RHs will remain
above 25%, and winds will stay below critical thresholds. So,
issuance of a Fire Danger Statement is not planned at this time.

Light returns on radar continue mainly across the northern metro
Atlanta area and eastern portions of the CWA. Very light rain
(sprinkles) or even a brief period of sleet cannot be ruled out
through the early afternoon in these areas. For much of the CWA,
however, no precip is reaching the ground.

Martin

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 620 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021/

.12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Short wave diving across the region this morning has little
moisture to work with, but has managed to squeeze out some light
precipitation from the mid-levels. Enough lift for continued
patchy, light radar returns across mainly north Georgia through
the first half of the day, but chances for measurable amounts
reaching the ground remains very low. Temperatures cool enough for
some of that light precipitation to be of a "wintry" nature early
this morning across the higher elevations of the far north, but
again, little potential to accumulate with temperatures at or
above freezing and precipitation so light. Should see clearing
skies by late in the day with mostly clear and dry tonight/Sunday.
Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal normals through the
period, although highs start to rebound a bit tomorrow.

20


LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A deep eastern states upper trough will gradually move off the
Atlantic Coast keeping us in a dry northwest flow aloft into the
first of next week. By mid week...the flow flattens and
transitions into a more west to southwest pattern. Models in good
agreement through Friday...but start to diverge at the very end of
the period. Strong high pressure aloft centered in the northern
Gulf should keep the deeper moisture to our north and west. A cold
front drifts into the OH Valley on Friday...but depending on the
evolution of a Great Lakes trough...the front could drift into
middle TN during the day. So have kept only a slight chance of
showers in the far northwest for Friday. Basically dry for the
entire period with a warming trend.

41


FIRE WEATHER...

Cooler afternoon temperatures and lingering cloud cover are
expected to keep relative humidity values above 25 percent this
afternoon for most areas. May see an hour or two at or slightly
below 25 percent in the far northwest, but duration expected to be
below Fire Danger Statement criteria. Ample sunshine and slightly
warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon may result in some areas
reaching the Fire Danger Statement criteria tomorrow.


AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR conditions predominate across the majority of the forecast
area through the majority of the forecast period. Still looks
likely we will see an area of mainly MVFR ceilings developing
across portions of north Georgia during the daytime hours. This
area does include the Atlanta metro area and KAHN TAF sites. Best
chances appear to be between 16/18Z and 21/23Z. Will also see
patchy light rain across the area through around 18Z, but chances,
duration, and intensity all too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Northeast to east winds 5-12kt, diminishing and work
back to northwest after 00Z.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on ceilings 12Z through 00Z.
Medium confidence on timing of wind direction changes between
northwest and northeast.

20

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  32  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         54  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  26  54  29 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  30  59  31 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        58  36  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     49  32  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           53  33  63  33 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            53  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  32  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         59  36  60  36 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Martin