


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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576 FXUS62 KFFC 111049 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 649 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. - Heat index values between 98 and 104 remain possible through Saturday with temperatures slowly rising through the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon. Coverage may not be as widespread as yesterday with the shortwave moving out of the Ohio valley and modest ridging developing on top of the CWA. PWATs remain elevated above 1.7" though yesterday`s sounding measured 1.91", well into the 90% for this time of year. No significant airmass changes are expected through Saturday so likely to see the same conditions Saturday as well. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. Storm motion will likely be slow today, meaning localized street flooding or even some flash flooding cannot be ruled out. While conditions will be hot and humid, temperatures and apparent temperatures will remain largely below heat advisory criteria. Most will see heat indices of 98 to 103, though some could see 104 to 105 in the southeastern counties of the CWA. Overall, peak heat index values will be short lived and afternoon thunderstorms could help to moderate temperatures further. SM && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Key Messages: -Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances across North and Central Georgia expected through this next week. -More widespread triple digit heat indices to return early next week. A subtropical ridge will begin setting up over portions of the Southeast and western Atlantic heading into the weekend and staying put through the majority of the long term period. With moisture sticking around -- PWS on the order of 1.5" to 2+" -- this set up will favor hot/humid conditions and daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As has been the trend, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible each day with gusty to localized damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak mid/upper-level pattern, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well. In addition to the typical summertime thunderstorms, the heat will be something else to closely monitor. Temperatures are forecast to climb back up into the low to mid 90s (aside from the NE mountains) perhaps upper 90s across portions of East-Central GA this weekend and next week. As a result, heat indices (or `feels like` temperatures) will rise above 100 and approach heat advisory criteria for many. Please take necessary precautions if you have outdoor plans --- Beat the Heat this summer! Still noting a slight uptick in rain/thunderstorm chances mid to late week as moisture continues to surge northward across the Southeast. Though nothing to suggest a major shift/change in the weather pattern. 07 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 LIFR to IFR at AHN this morning for BKN-OVC 003-005. VFR at all other sites. -TSRA this afternoon and evening may begin as early as 18z and last until 02z, most likely 20-24z. Winds W at 5 to 10 kts become light to variable overnight. Patchy low cigs in north GA Saturday morning may impact far northern metro taf sites. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence thunderstorm timing and coverage. High all other elements. SM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 91 71 92 73 / 30 20 40 10 Atlanta 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 40 10 Blairsville 85 65 86 66 / 60 10 70 10 Cartersville 90 70 92 71 / 50 20 50 10 Columbus 92 73 94 74 / 60 30 40 10 Gainesville 90 71 91 73 / 40 10 50 10 Macon 92 73 93 73 / 40 20 40 10 Rome 90 70 91 71 / 50 10 50 10 Peachtree City 90 70 92 71 / 50 20 40 10 Vidalia 93 74 94 75 / 50 30 40 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SM