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000
FXUS62 KFFC 060535 AAC
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1235 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

...06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track for the evening with mid/upper level
clouds overspreading the area, with low temps tonight in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Slightly cooler tomorrow, with highs in the
50s with clouds expected to hang around before clearing late
afternoon as the shortwave system moves through south GA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
The main feature in the short term period is a closed upper-level
low that will dive southeastward through the ArkLaTex today, then
transition to a shortwave trough as it pushes across MS/AL/GA
tonight through tomorrow. A surface low will develop in the northern
Gulf tomorrow in response to the upper-level forcing, but the low
will remain well south of the CWA as high pressure builds into the
state from the north. As a result, moisture will be quite limited
across the CWA tonight and Saturday, with PWATs generally under 0.5
inch. CAMs suggest the possibility for some sprinkles across the CWA
tonight, but given the mid-level cloud deck that will be in place
with dry air from ~700 mb to the surface, I am maintaining
essentially no PoPs across the CWA. Lows will range from the mid-
and upper 30s north, to lower to mid-40s south.

Saturday will bring a transition to northwest flow aloft as the
aforementioned system exits to our east. Mid-level clouds will
gradually clear through the late morning and early afternoon,
keeping highs capped in the lower 50s to near 60. Lows heading into
Sunday morning will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Martin

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated for the extended
portion of the forecast. There is some potential into next weekend
for some isold/sct shra up north, but coverage at this time remains
low.

High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and remain the
dominant weather feature for the next seven days. The ridge axis is
expected to slide offshore by the middle of next week, with the
surface flow switching to are more southerly direction, increasing
the low level moisture. Below normal temperatures are anticipated
through the weekend, but he warm up begins next week with values
well above normal for this time of year expected.

NListemaa

FIRE WEATHER...
Cloud cover associated with a passing upper-level system tomorrow
(Saturday) will mitigate fire weather concerns, but the northern
tier of the forecast area will still need to be monitored for
minimum RHs approaching ~25%.

Low RH values are expected to continue into the weekend, but winds
will remain below any critical values. NW winds on Sunday should
switch over to the NE overnight Sunday or early Monday morning.
Winds will remain easterly through the end of the week. By
Thursday/Friday, winds may try to go more S/SSW. Wind speeds through
the period should be fairly light across most locales and averaging
10mph or less.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions predominate across the majority of the forecast area
through the majority of the forecast period. Looking more likely we
will see an area of mainly MVFR ceilings developing across portions
of north Georgia during the daytime hours. This area does include
the Atlanta metro area TAF sites. Best chances appear to be between
16/18Z and 21/23Z. Will also see patchy light rain across the area
through around 18Z, but chances, duration, and intensity all too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Northwest winds 3-7kt will
become northeast to east 4-10kt by 08-12Z. Winds diminish and work
back to northwest after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on ceilings 12Z through 00Z.
Medium confidence on timing of wind direction changes between
northwest and northeast.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  56  33  61 /  10   5   0   0
Atlanta         42  55  35  60 /  10   5   0   0
Blairsville     34  52  28  54 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    39  56  32  60 /  10   5   0   0
Columbus        46  60  37  64 /   5  10   0   0
Gainesville     40  55  34  59 /  10   5   0   0
Macon           44  58  34  64 /   5  10   0   0
Rome            38  58  32  62 /  10   5   0   0
Peachtree City  42  56  34  61 /   5   5   0   0
Vidalia         45  58  37  60 /   5  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan