169
FXUS62 KFFC 111725
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Key Messages:

  - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
    rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

  - Heat index values between 98 and 104 remain possible through
    Saturday with temperatures slowly rising through the weekend.

Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected this afternoon.
Coverage may not be as widespread as yesterday with the shortwave
moving out of the Ohio valley and modest ridging developing on top
of the CWA. PWATs remain elevated above 1.7" though yesterday`s
sounding measured 1.91", well into the 90% for this time of year. No
significant airmass changes are expected through Saturday so likely
to see the same conditions Saturday as well. Thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong wind
gusts. Storm motion will likely be slow today, meaning localized
street flooding or even some flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

While conditions will be hot and humid, temperatures and apparent
temperatures will remain largely below heat advisory criteria. Most
will see heat indices of 98 to 103, though some could see 104 to
105 in the southeastern counties of the CWA. Overall, peak heat
index values will be short lived and afternoon thunderstorms could
help to moderate temperatures further.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Key Messages:

-Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances across North and
Central Georgia expected through this next week.

-More widespread triple digit heat indices to return early next
 week.

A subtropical ridge will begin setting up over portions of the
Southeast and western Atlantic heading into the weekend and staying
put through the majority of the long term period. With moisture
sticking around -- PWS on the order of 1.5" to 2+" -- this set up
will favor hot/humid conditions and daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. As has been the trend, an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm remains possible each day with gusty to localized
damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the
threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak
mid/upper-level pattern, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or
stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well.

In addition to the typical summertime thunderstorms, the heat will
be something else to closely monitor. Temperatures are forecast to
climb back up into the low to mid 90s (aside from the NE mountains)
perhaps upper 90s across portions of East-Central GA this weekend
and next week. As a result, heat indices (or `feels like`
temperatures) will rise above 100 and approach heat advisory
criteria for many. Please take necessary precautions if you have
outdoor plans --- Beat the Heat this summer!

Still noting a slight uptick in rain/thunderstorm chances mid to
late week as moisture continues to surge northward across the
Southeast. Though nothing to suggest a major shift/change in the
weather pattern.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
outside of any SHRA/TSRA. Sct SHRA/TSRA will peak in coverage from
roughly 19-00Z before gradually diminishing overnight. Additional
sct SHRA/TSRA can again be expected on Saturday, mainly after 18Z.
Winds will remain W at 4-8 kts.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  93  73 /  30  20  30  10
Atlanta         90  73  92  74 /  40  20  30   0
Blairsville     85  65  86  66 /  40  20  50  10
Cartersville    91  70  91  71 /  50  10  30  10
Columbus        91  73  94  74 /  50  10  20   0
Gainesville     90  72  91  73 /  30  10  30  10
Macon           92  72  94  74 /  30  20  30   0
Rome            90  70  91  71 /  50  10  30  10
Peachtree City  90  70  92  72 /  50  10  30   0
Vidalia         92  74  94  76 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW