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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061817
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021


...Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion...


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1118 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021/

.UPDATE...

Updated temperatures and dew points using the HRRR to capture
trends this morning. Surface-to-850 mb layer remains quite dry,
though mixing down of moisture aloft will aid in keeping RHs
higher today than yesterday. Aside from some isolated locales
(mainly across portions of north Georgia), minimum RHs will remain
above 25%, and winds will stay below critical thresholds. So,
issuance of a Fire Danger Statement is not planned at this time.

Light returns on radar continue mainly across the northern metro
Atlanta area and eastern portions of the CWA. Very light rain
(sprinkles) or even a brief period of sleet cannot be ruled out
through the early afternoon in these areas. For much of the CWA,
however, no precip is reaching the ground.

Martin


12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Short wave diving across the region this morning has little
moisture to work with, but has managed to squeeze out some light
precipitation from the mid-levels. Enough lift for continued
patchy, light radar returns across mainly north Georgia through
the first half of the day, but chances for measurable amounts
reaching the ground remains very low. Temperatures cool enough for
some of that light precipitation to be of a "wintry" nature early
this morning across the higher elevations of the far north, but
again, little potential to accumulate with temperatures at or
above freezing and precipitation so light. Should see clearing
skies by late in the day with mostly clear and dry tonight/Sunday.
Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal normals through the
period, although highs start to rebound a bit tomorrow.

20


LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A deep eastern states upper trough will gradually move off the
Atlantic Coast keeping us in a dry northwest flow aloft into the
first of next week. By mid week...the flow flattens and
transitions into a more west to southwest pattern. Models in good
agreement through Friday...but start to diverge at the very end of
the period. Strong high pressure aloft centered in the northern
Gulf should keep the deeper moisture to our north and west. A cold
front drifts into the OH Valley on Friday...but depending on the
evolution of a Great Lakes trough...the front could drift into
middle TN during the day. So have kept only a slight chance of
showers in the far northwest for Friday. Basically dry for the
entire period with a warming trend.

41


FIRE WEATHER...

Cooler afternoon temperatures and lingering cloud cover are
expected to keep relative humidity values above 25 percent this
afternoon for most areas. May see an hour or two at or slightly
below 25 percent in the far northwest, but duration expected to be
below Fire Danger Statement criteria. Ample sunshine and slightly
warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon may result in some areas
reaching the Fire Danger Statement criteria tomorrow.

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR cigs at 070 to 090 are holding across all TAF sites, but
should lift and scatter out by 21-23z. Light radar returns are
occurring over AHN, and while some sprinkles cannot be ruled out
through the afternoon, much of the precip from the mid-level cloud
deck has not reached the ground today. Winds will remain E to NE
at 5-12 kts at metro Atlanta TAF sites until ~00z, at which point
they should shift to NNW with speeds ~3-5 kts overnight. Sunday
will bring SKC and NNW winds at 4-9 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on wind shift at metro ATL TAF sites.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  33  61  32 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         55  33  60  34 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     50  27  54  29 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    54  30  60  31 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        62  36  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     51  32  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           57  34  63  33 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            56  31  62  31 /   5   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  32  61  32 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         60  36  61  35 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Martin