Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 040902
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
402 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021



.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

A quiet and tranquil short term period is in store for the forecast
area. Synoptically, mi-level troughing will amplify to the northeast
along the eastern coastline with broad ridging to the west. Locally,
a surface high pressure currently sits to the west over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley, but over time the dominate high pressure
region will be from spilling out of an extremely strong surface high
pressure region in central Canada, formed through the excessive
subsidence provided by the anticyclonic vorticity advection between
the aforementioned synoptic-scale mid-level ridging and troughing to
the northwest and northeast, respectively. This northern air mass
will push into the forecast area early tomorrow morning taking the
area to abnormally warm and dry, with highs near 70, to seasonal and
dry, and highs fall to the 60s tomorrow.

Underneath the broader ridging, a cutoff mid-level low pressure
system will slip across the Four Corners region, forming a surface
low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies that will be pushed
southward by the northwest flow regime. This low will begin to
provide some incoming mid- and upper-level clouds by the end of the
short term period, but will otherwise not affect the region before
the weekend. Only concerns in the near term will revolve around fire
weather conditions, described in the Fire Weather section below.

Thiem


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The forecast area remains under a northwest flow aloft through the
weekend. An upper short wave moves from the lower MS Valley across
the southeast through Saturday. Some uncertainty exists with how
much moisture will be associated with this wave and how far north
it will extend. With the surface low moving along the Gulf...keeping
the low pops confined to the area south of Columbus to Macon still
looks reasonable for Friday night and Saturday. After that...the
upper ridge builds across the southeast giving us dry weather with
a warming trend. A return to a southwesterly flow aloft should
give us a chance of showers for northwest GA...but just beyond
the end of the period.


41


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As finer fuels dry out under this regime, where the evening
soundings showed PWATS have dropped to 0.3 inches and water vapor
satellite imagery shows the trend will continue, deep mixing in the
afternoon look to bottom out afternoon dewpoints and RHs below what
blended model guidance can predict. Some high-resolution, convective-
allowing model runs show dewpoints in the 20s for portions of NE GA
today on the lee side of the Blue Ridge mnt ridgeline, and even
potently dropping as far as the low 20s to teens tomorrow. Both of
these scenarios would put RH levels at critical thresholds, but
thankfully, weak winds under a high pressure regime will keep any
Red Flag condition at bay. In the meantime, a Fire Danger Statement
has been issued for portions of North Georgia, mostly on the
southern and southeastern side of the North Georgia mountains where
RHs are expected to reach 20-25 percent this afternoon. Further Fire
Danger Statements are likely to continue in the days ahead.


&&



AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR to prevail through TAF period with broadly NW/NNW winds 3-6
kts overnight, becoming 6-10 kts this afternoon. Wind dir could go
010 occasionally after 03Z Thursday night.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  40  65  41 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         69  43  64  42 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     63  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    68  37  62  38 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     69  40  64  40 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           71  42  68  42 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            70  39  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  69  41  65  41 /   0   0   5  10
Vidalia         70  45  65  45 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Thiem



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