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000
FXUS62 KFFC 051612 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1112 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021



.UPDATE...

Have tweaked temperatures, dew points, and winds to capture
observed trends. Specifically, have used a HRRR/hi-res model blend
to capture falling dew points, especially across north Georgia.
Elevated fire weather conditions remain a concern today across
much of the forecast area, given low relative humidities and
projected low 10-hour fuel moistures. Fire Danger Statement
remains in effect generally north of a line from Columbus to
Athens this afternoon. See the "Fire Weather" section below for
more details.

Martin

&&


..12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Medium-range models in good agreement through the short-term
forecast period. Closed upper low approaching today as it sweeps
through the high-amplitude longwave pattern opens up and weakens
as it swings through the region tonight/Saturday. Models keep any
surface low development associated with this system well south of
the state over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Better moisture
remains well south as well with forecast precipitable water values
struggling to exceed 1/2" across the forecast area. Can`t rule
out a few light sprinkles reaching the surface across the forecast
area tonight, but chances remain too low to include in the
forecast for now. Main impact from this system will be increasing
clouds today with mostly cloudy skies tonight through much of
Saturday. Should see some clearing working into the forecast area
from the west/ northwest by the latter half of the day Saturday.
Temperatures remain near seasonal normals in general, slightly
above today and slightly below Saturday.

20


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Deep eastern states upper trough will gradually move off the
Atlantic Coast keeping us in a dry northwest flow aloft into the
first of next week. By mid week...the flow flattens and
transitions into a more west to southwest pattern. Strong high
pressure centered in the western Atlantic tends to keep the deeper
moisture to our north and west. So...basically dry for the entire
period. Temperatures start out on the cool side but gradually
warm through the week.

41


FIRE WEATHER...

Although slightly cooler afternoon temperatures will limit the
coverage and duration, several hours of relative humidity values
around or below 25 percent are likely across much of west-central
and north Georgia this afternoon. 10-Hour fuel moisture values and
wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria,
however we will be issuing a Fire Danger Statement for the area
generally north and west of a line from around Columbus to Athens
for this afternoon.


AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR conditions will predominate across the forecast area through the
forecast period. High-level cloud coverage increases through the
daytime today with mid-level clouds increasing by 00-06Z. Cannot
rule out some light showers across the area after 00Z, but coverage
should be sparse. Northwest to north winds 3-7kt become north to
northeast 3-7kt by 15Z but are expected to edge back to north/
northwest by 18-20z and increase to 5-10kt across the Atlanta Metro
TAF sites. Winds finally switch back to northeast by 06-08Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

20

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  41  56  33 /   0  10  10   0
Atlanta         65  42  55  35 /   0  10  10   0
Blairsville     57  35  52  28 /   0  10   5   0
Cartersville    62  38  56  31 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus        71  45  60  37 /   0  10  10   0
Gainesville     62  40  55  34 /   0  10  10   0
Macon           69  42  59  34 /   0   5   5   0
Rome            63  38  58  32 /   0  10   5   0
Peachtree City  67  42  57  34 /   0  10   5   0
Vidalia         67  44  58  37 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Martin