Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 052343
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
643 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
The main feature in the short term period is a closed upper-level
low that will dive southeastward through the ArkLaTex today, then
transition to a shortwave trough as it pushes across MS/AL/GA
tonight through tomorrow. A surface low will develop in the northern
Gulf tomorrow in response to the upper-level forcing, but the low
will remain well south of the CWA as high pressure builds into the
state from the north. As a result, moisture will be quite limited
across the CWA tonight and Saturday, with PWATs generally under 0.5
inch. CAMs suggest the possibility for some sprinkles across the CWA
tonight, but given the mid-level cloud deck that will be in place
with dry air from ~700 mb to the surface, I am maintaining
essentially no PoPs across the CWA. Lows will range from the mid-
and upper 30s north, to lower to mid-40s south.

Saturday will bring a transition to northwest flow aloft as the
aforementioned system exits to our east. Mid-level clouds will
gradually clear through the late morning and early afternoon,
keeping highs capped in the lower 50s to near 60. Lows heading into
Sunday morning will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Martin

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated for the extended
portion of the forecast. There is some potential into next weekend
for some isold/sct shra up north, but coverage at this time remains
low.

High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and remain the
dominant weather feature for the next seven days. The ridge axis is
expected to slide offshore by the middle of next week, with the
surface flow switching to are more southerly direction, increasing
the low level moisture. Below normal temperatures are anticipated
through the weekend, but he warm up begins next week with values
well above normal for this time of year expected.

NListemaa

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cloud cover associated with a passing upper-level system tomorrow
(Saturday) will mitigate fire weather concerns, but the northern
tier of the forecast area will still need to be monitored for
minimum RHs approaching ~25%.

Low RH values are expected to continue into the weekend, but winds
will remain below any critical values. NW winds on Sunday should
switch over to the NE overnight Sunday or early Monday morning.
Winds will remain easterly through the end of the week. By
Thursday/Friday, winds may try to go more S/SSW. Wind speeds through
the period should be fairly light across most locales and averaging
10mph or less.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions through the evening with high level clouds starting
to move across the metro TAF sites. Winds expected to shift to
the NE around 08z tomorrow in addition to lowering clouds. There
is the potential for a brief period of BKN MVFR cigs for a couple
hours tomorrow afternoon ~17z-19z before going FEW by 22z. Winds
expected to go NNE to NNW by late tomorrow afternoon. Winds should
remain between 4-8kts through the period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence on MVFR cigs.
Medium confidence on timing of wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  56  33  61 /  10   5   0   0
Atlanta         42  55  35  60 /  10   5   0   0
Blairsville     34  52  28  54 /  10   5   0   0
Cartersville    39  56  32  60 /  10   5   0   0
Columbus        46  60  37  64 /  10   5   0   0
Gainesville     40  55  34  59 /  10   5   0   0
Macon           44  58  34  64 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            38  58  32  62 /  10   5   0   0
Peachtree City  42  56  34  61 /  10   5   0   0
Vidalia         45  58  37  60 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan


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