Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 020552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1252 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021


Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1026 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/

..Quick update to short term PoPs...


Another update this evening to the short term PoPs as light rain
showers continue to develop over central and east Georgia. These
should remain light. Better moisture and lift still progged for
tomorrow as upper level low moves toward the area driving large
area of isentropic lift ahead of it. Forecast remains on track

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 723 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/

.00Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion with small evening update
for trends to PoPs...


Small updates to short term PoP trends across far north and
central GA as some showers continue to reach the ground in the
north and a pocket of rain has spread over central GA. Expecting
rain showers in the north to stop very soon. A little more
uncertainty on how long rain in central GA will continue to stick
around, but trends would move it east in the next few hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021/

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
The short term period starts off with a cut-off low over NM/TX/OK,
and near-zonal flow aloft across the CWA. For the rest of today,
isolated light showers will be a possibility as moisture interacts
with a cold front pushing through the area. Tuesday morning lows
will be cooler than previous nights -- in the mid-30s to upper 40s.

The upper low will compress into a shortwave trough and traverse the
ArkLaTex on Tuesday, continuing to advect warm, moist air across
north and central Georgia ahead of it. PoPs will gradually increase
from south to north on Tuesday as a surface low lifts northward out
of the northern Gulf. Models generally have the axis of heaviest
rain falling over central Georgia Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning. Storm total QPF for this period ranges from 2 to 3 inches
along and south of a line roughly from Lake Harding (Harris County)
to Forsyth (Monroe County) to Milledgeville to Wrens. Locally higher
rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. At this time, it
appears that isolated flash flooding should be the extent of any
hydrological issues, as most river stations across central
Georgia are measuring normal streamflows.

Only advertising a slight chance of thunderstorms for Tuesday
afternoon and evening for now, given limited progged instability
albeit decent bulk shear from the approaching upper wave. Highs on
Tuesday will top out in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Wednesday morning
lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No significant forecast issues or weather impacts expected in the
long term period. Heavy rain will have moved out by Wed morning
with a period of dry, cool (near normal) weather following with
NW flow aloft pattern.

Pretty good guidance agreement on next wave, expected to drop
south of the area in NW flow on Fri/Sat. Mean flow somewhat weak
but should move through in ~24hrs. Thermodynamic profile supports
all liquid precip thru the event and little instability. Have no
TSRA for now, but will continue to monitor. After this wave moves
out another few days of dry, cool wx.



06Z Update...
Primarily VFR ceilings and visibilities are in place across all
TAF sites as the period begins. Scattered -SHRA is ongoing in
central Georgia in the vicinity of CSG/MCN. More widespread rain
will build northward across the area during the day, arriving at
CSG/MCN BY 16Z and the metro ATL sites by 20-21Z and remaining
through the period. Ceilings will lower to MVFR as rain moves in
and lower further to IFR after 02-03Z. Winds of 5-10 kts through
the period will start at NW to N before shifting to NE before
sunrise and further to E during the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.



Athens          53  38  60  38 /  50  90  40   0
Atlanta         49  40  58  40 /  70  90  20   0
Blairsville     49  37  57  35 /  30  80  30   0
Cartersville    53  39  60  37 /  60  90  10   0
Columbus        51  43  62  41 /  90  90  10   0
Gainesville     51  39  60  40 /  50  90  30   0
Macon           51  42  60  39 /  80  90  20   0
Rome            54  40  61  37 /  50  90  10   0
Peachtree City  50  40  60  39 /  80  90  10   0
Vidalia         52  44  58  42 /  80  90  40   0




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