046
FXUS62 KFFC 091852
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each
      afternoon. Some storms may produce isolated wet downbursts/
      damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, especially across
      east central Georgia.

    - Heat Index values as high as 100-104 degrees possible today
      and tomorrow afternoon.

Mid-level troughing remains over the eastern CONUS, with shortwave
disturbances traversing the base of the broader trough. Meanwhile, a
conveyor belt of deep atmospheric moisture continues to stream
over the region to the west of the Bermuda High and underneath
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough, with precipitable
water values between 1.7 and 2.1 inches. Aside from 80s in the
higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs this afternoon
are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s across the forecast
area. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across will contribute to
heat index values between 99-104 degrees during the peak heating
hours this afternoon. A couple of spots in east-central Georgia
could briefly reach 105 degrees, but this appears to be
increasingly unlikely with showers and thunderstorms already
beginning to develop in this area.

A stronger, negatively-tilted shortwave is swinging through the Ohio
Valley region towards the Mid-Atlantic around the base of the larger
trough. With large-scale lift ahead of this shortwave, combined with
SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected across the area this afternoon. In addition to
contributing to greater storm coverage, the high PWATs will also
favor precip loading in downdrafts, bringing stronger winds aloft
down to the surface. Because of this, the SPC has diagnosed a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across east Georgia
for this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat with any severe thunderstorms that occur. Stronger
storms that form will also be capable of producing heavy rain and
frequent lightning. Speaking of heavy rain, steering flow will be
weak at 10 kts or less, so storms will move very little during their
life cycle and could even backbuild along surface cold pools. Add
this up, and the potential is there for nuisance flooding and
ponding of water in low-lying areas or impermeable surfaces.
Localized flash flooding is also possible where stronger storms
linger over a common location for a prolonged time.

High temperatures on Thursday will be a little "cooler" than today
courtesy of increasing storm and associated cloud coverage, rising
mainly into the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices between 99-104
will largely be confined to portions of central and east Georgia
during the afternoon. Thunderstorms on Thursday will find themselves
in an environment very similar to today, with high PWATs and strong
destabilization once again. Another Marginal Risk for severe weather
is in place across east Georgia, along with a sliver of a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) across the far southeastern portion of the
forecast area. Damaging winds will once again be the main severe
weather threat given precip loading in downdrafts once again. The
moisture-rich airmass will also warrant continued monitoring of
heavy rain and flooding potential, especially with soils becoming
more saturated the longer this wet pattern lasts.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

    - Higher shower and thunderstorm coverage on Friday will taper
      to more typical isolated to scattered coverage over the
      weekend.

    - Temperatures rebound over the weekend into early next week,
      bringing a return to more widespread triple digit heat index
      values.

Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern CONUS at the start of
the period on Friday will begin to give way to the building
subtropical ridge over Southeast through the weekend. As such,
shower and thunderstorm coverage will be highest on Friday with a
bit of a downtrend in coverage each day from the weekend into early
next week. Even so, given the nature of the deep Gulf moisture
trapped beneath the ridge, isolated to widely scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a concern each day given
the aforementioned deep moisture characterized by PWATs of 1.75 to
2+" through most of the period. Additionally, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm threat could also be expected with water-loaded
downbursts the primary risk.

The other effect of the building subtropical ridge and relatively
less shower and thunderstorm coverage will be increasing
temperatures. Relatively "cooler" highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
on Friday will rebound back toward the mid 90s for most (and even
upper 90s for a few areas) by the weekend. With the combined impact
of the humid airmass in place, apparent temperatures will return
back above 100 for most areas and approach Heat Advisory criteria
for some locations by early next week.

Finally, while discrepancies certainly remain at this juncture, PoPs
appear more likely to trend back upward by the tail end of the long
term from Tuesday-Wednesday. Current guidance suggests deeper
moisture could surge back into the area if a coastal wave encroaches
on the eastern side of the westward-migrating ridge.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered to numerous TSRA is anticipated this afternoon into the
evening, with the best window for direct terminal impacts currently
captured by a TEMPO from 21-01Z at ATL and 19-23Z at MCN/CSG.
Primarily VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening,
with a cu field between 040-060. MVFR level clouds will be possible
early Thursday morning, though location and potential for ceiling
development will depend on locations that see rainfall today. Winds
will be W through the period at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on thunderstorm coverage and MVFR potential
early Thursday morning.
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  71  91 /  50  70  30  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  91 /  40  70  30  50
Blairsville     65  83  65  85 /  60  80  30  60
Cartersville    71  88  70  90 /  40  70  30  50
Columbus        74  92  72  91 /  30  60  30  60
Gainesville     72  88  71  90 /  50  60  30  40
Macon           72  91  72  92 /  30  60  30  60
Rome            71  87  70  89 /  40  70  20  50
Peachtree City  71  89  70  91 /  40  60  30  50
Vidalia         74  92  74  93 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King