Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 041805 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
105 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

.UPDATE...
For 18z TAFs/Aviation.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 650 AM EST Fri Dec 4 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A strong upper closed low will rotate from the lower MS River Valley
into the southern Appalachians during the short term. Meanwhile an
elongated surface short wave will cross the southeast states today.
Showers will be increasing over north and central GA today
associated with this wave. Models agree that this system will be
progressive...with rain diminishing from the west starting around
00z. Not anticipating widespread high QPF values from this system
with QPF totals ranging between 0.5 to 1.0 inch...highest mainly
over north GA. The atmosphere is generally stable ahead of the short
wave...with continued easterly winds. However...there could be some
instability developing mainly this afternoon as the warm front tries
to move north. A mention of thunder has been included for the
southern half of the forecast area during that time. As the system
moves out and northwest flow takes over...a dip in temperatures
with lows in 30s to around 40 are forecast overnight Friday into
Saturday.

41

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The main concern for the long term will be Sunday through Monday as
the models are struggling handling moisture return and an upper
level trough forecast to move across the Ern U.S. All in all,
rain chances look to be on the low end and any precip amounts only
light.

One thing we will need to monitor is the potential for a rain snow
mix and a brief period of potential all snow over the NE mountains
Sunday night into Monday. At this time, potential snow accumulations
are expected to be light as well, maybe around 1/4 inch or less.

Once this upper system passes, the rest of the long term, Tuesday
through Thursday, is expected to be dry.

For the most part, forecast temperatures are expected to run within
around 5 degrees of normal.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Prevailing MVFR with -SHRA across the metro sites this afternoon,
expected to go widespread IFR cigs by 21z with pockets of LIFR
and visibilities of 2-5sm through 23z. SE winds expect to turn SW
around 21z. Conditions should improve to VFR after 00z as the
front passes bringing NW winds of 10-15kt and gusts up to 25kt.
Winds should ease back to 5-10kts by 12z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...
18Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs.
High confidence on all other elements.

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  37  56  32 /  90  70   0   0
Atlanta         57  37  54  32 /  90  50   0   0
Blairsville     50  33  48  27 /  90  70   0   0
Cartersville    54  35  54  29 /  90  50   0   0
Columbus        65  38  59  36 /  90  30   0   0
Gainesville     52  37  54  32 /  90  70   0   0
Macon           67  38  60  33 /  80  50   0   0
Rome            54  35  56  30 /  90  30   0   0
Peachtree City  60  35  56  31 /  90  50   0   0
Vidalia         71  42  60  38 /  50  60   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Morgan


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