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000
FXUS62 KFFC 051820
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
120 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021



...Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion and Update to Near-Term
Forecast...


18z Forecast Update...

Have gone with the HRRR for dew points through 00z. Elevated fire
weather conditions remain a concern today across much of the
forecast area, given low relative humidities and projected low
10-hour fuel moistures. Fire Danger Statement now includes all of
north and central Georgia. See the "Fire Weather" section below
for more details.

Martin


.12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Medium-range models in good agreement through the short-term
forecast period. Closed upper low approaching today as it sweeps
through the high-amplitude longwave pattern opens up and weakens
as it swings through the region tonight/Saturday. Models keep any
surface low development associated with this system well south of
the state over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Better moisture
remains well south as well with forecast precipitable water values
struggling to exceed 1/2" across the forecast area. Can`t rule
out a few light sprinkles reaching the surface across the forecast
area tonight, but chances remain too low to include in the
forecast for now. Main impact from this system will be increasing
clouds today with mostly cloudy skies tonight through much of
Saturday. Should see some clearing working into the forecast area
from the west/ northwest by the latter half of the day Saturday.
Temperatures remain near seasonal normals in general, slightly
above today and slightly below Saturday.

20


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Deep eastern states upper trough will gradually move off the
Atlantic Coast keeping us in a dry northwest flow aloft into the
first of next week. By mid week...the flow flattens and
transitions into a more west to southwest pattern. Strong high
pressure centered in the western Atlantic tends to keep the deeper
moisture to our north and west. So...basically dry for the entire
period. Temperatures start out on the cool side but gradually
warm through the week.

41


FIRE WEATHER...

Although slightly cooler afternoon temperatures will limit the
coverage and duration, several hours of relative humidity values
around or below 25 percent are likely across much of west-central
and north Georgia this afternoon. 10-Hour fuel moisture values and
wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria,
however we will be issuing a Fire Danger Statement for the area
generally north and west of a line from around Columbus to Athens
for this afternoon.


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
TAF sites. Mid- and high-level clouds will increase in coverage
through the afternoon and evening. Some isolated sprinkles are
possible across the forecast area tonight mainly after 02z. Cigs
will fall to around 6000 ft by ~10z-12z before scattering out late
Saturday morning and early afternoon. Winds at AHN, MCN, and CSG
are E at 4-7 kts and will remain that way through the period. At
the metro ATL TAF sites, winds should generally be NNW at 4-7 kts
until ~10z-12z Saturday, at which point they will switch to NE.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on timing of wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  41  56  33 /   0  10  10   0
Atlanta         65  42  55  35 /   0  10  10   0
Blairsville     58  35  52  28 /   0  10   5   0
Cartersville    61  38  56  31 /   0  10  10   0
Columbus        71  45  60  37 /   0  10  10   0
Gainesville     63  40  55  34 /   0  10  10   0
Macon           69  42  59  34 /   0   5   5   0
Rome            60  38  58  32 /   0  10   5   0
Peachtree City  66  42  57  34 /   0  10   5   0
Vidalia         68  44  58  37 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Martin