


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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128 FXUS62 KFFC 080726 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms possible each afternoon. - Heat Index values as high as 100-104 degrees possible today and tomorrow afternoon. Discussion: For today, the mid-level pattern will continue to be characterized by fairly persistent troughing -- lingering through at least late week. The combination of series of shortwaves rounding the bases of the broader eastward-translating troughs and moisture transport along the western edge of the Bermuda High will support a return to the diurnally-driven thunderstorm chances characteristic of summertime. A moisture-rich, higher PWAT (1.5-2") airmass will continue to fill in across the forecast area over the next few days, and convective coverage will increase as it does so, with chances for scattered to numerous, perhaps even widespread, thunderstorms across all of north and central Georgia through Wednesday. Instability will be on the lower side by summer standards -- on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg -- so not expecting much in the way of severe storm activity. However, an isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe storm impact (namely an isolated damaging wind gust) cannot be ruled out for the most advantageous updrafts. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s for all except far northeast Georgia, which should remain in the upper 70s to 80s. For Wednesday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler under the influence of greater cloud cover from more numerous storms. With surging moisture and thus humidity, widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be between 100 to 104 degrees through midweek, generally bubbling right under Heat Advisory criteria (though isolated pockets within the southern and eastern halves of the area may briefly feel like 105). Given relatively patchy nature, not anticipating product issuance at this time, but will continue to monitor. Lows will drop into the 60s to mid-70s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 312 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Key Messages: - Rain chances pick up by the end of the week as moisture continues to filter in, before going to a more normal isolated to scattered again by early next week. - Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week, increasing to the lower to mid 90s by the beginning of next week that could bring higher "feels like" temps back to the area. Forecast: Moisture continues to return into the CWA across the beginning of the long term forecast, bringing widespread diurnally driven rain and thunderstorm chances that will increase into Friday and that should stick around through the weekend. Several systems will move by to the north of the CWA through this period, and while none of them will drive any kind of frontal system into the area, all will pull up moisture from the Gulf to bring that real nice July in Georgia feeling we all know and love with air you can wear. Some uncertainty in place across the model suites on this, with the GFS ensemble being a bit more aggressive on the formation of a surface low across the midwest on Friday when compared with the Euro suite, but the differences for our area should be relatively small. The system expected to clip by to the north on Thursday could drive a minor severe threat across NE and far eastern parts of Georgia. Some weak shear is noted moving across the Appalachians during the day. Terrain should help to provide some additional lift to get storms going during the afternoon. These should move off the terrain, and can`t rule out some minor organization of outflows that could bring some strong to severe winds to the area. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) currently clips the very edges of NE GA. Severe chances look low through the rest of the period at this time. Through the weekend, uncertainty increases in the upper level pattern to the north, which does lend to some uncertainty in PoPs across the area, especially as the upper levels may be increasingly stagnant and unable to "refresh" after multiple days and rounds of convection heating the upper levels. Diurnal rain chances are likely through Sunday, and some decrease happens into Monday as a subtropical ridge may settle in. If PoPs decrease, expect the temps and "feels like" temps to increase. Current forecast brings us back into widespread lower to mid 90s for temps, with many areas in the triple digits for the "feels like" temps. Will need to watch this period going forward. Lusk && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF period with primarily FEW-SCT cigs at 4-10kft. ISO to SCT -TSRA is psbl between 18-24Z, captured by a PROB group for all northern terminals. Winds will remain out of the W/WSW at 4-7kts. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence afternoon TSRA potential. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 96 74 92 72 / 20 20 60 40 Atlanta 95 75 93 73 / 30 20 70 40 Blairsville 89 66 86 65 / 40 20 80 50 Cartersville 95 72 92 71 / 30 20 70 40 Columbus 95 74 94 74 / 30 20 50 30 Gainesville 94 74 92 72 / 30 20 70 40 Macon 95 74 93 73 / 50 20 60 30 Rome 93 71 91 71 / 30 20 70 40 Peachtree City 95 72 93 71 / 30 20 60 40 Vidalia 95 75 92 73 / 60 30 70 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...96