Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 061121 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

...12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Short wave diving across the region this morning has little moisture
to work with, but has managed to squeeze out some light
precipitation from the mid-levels. Enough lift for continued patchy,
light radar returns across mainly north Georgia through the first
half of the day, but chances for measurable amounts reaching the
ground remains very low. Temperatures cool enough for some of that
light precipitation to be of a "wintry" nature early this morning
across the higher elevations of the far north, but again, little
potential to accumulate with temperatures at or above freezing and
precipitation so light. Should see clearing skies by late in the day
with mostly clear and dry tonight/Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit
below seasonal normals through the period, although highs start to
rebound a bit tomorrow.

20


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

A deep eastern states upper trough will gradually move off the
Atlantic Coast keeping us in a dry northwest flow aloft into the
first of next week. By mid week...the flow flattens and
transitions into a more west to southwest pattern. Models in good
agreement through Friday...but start to diverge at the very end of
the period. Strong high pressure aloft centered in the northern
Gulf should keep the deeper moisture to our north and west. A cold
front drifts into the OH Valley on Friday...but depending on the
evolution of a Great Lakes trough...the front could drift into
middle TN during the day. So have kept only a slight chance of
showers in the far northwest for Friday. Basically dry for the
entire period with a warming trend.

41


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Cooler afternoon temperatures and lingering cloud cover are expected
to keep relative humidity values above 25 percent this afternoon for
most areas. May see an hour or two at or slightly below 25 percent
in the far northwest, but duration expected to be below Fire Danger
Statement criteria. Ample sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures
Sunday afternoon may result in some areas reaching the Fire Danger
Statement criteria tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR conditions predominate across the majority of the forecast area
through the majority of the forecast period. Still looks likely we
will see an area of mainly MVFR ceilings developing across portions
of north Georgia during the daytime hours. This area does include
the Atlanta metro area and KAHN TAF sites. Best chances appear to be
between 16/18Z and 21/23Z. Will also see patchy light rain across
the area through around 18Z, but chances, duration, and intensity
all too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Northeast to east
winds 5-12kt, diminishing and work back to northwest after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on ceilings 12Z through 00Z.
Medium confidence on timing of wind direction changes between
northwest and northeast.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  32  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         53  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     53  26  54  29 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    55  30  59  31 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        61  36  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  32  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           58  33  63  33 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            57  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  32  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         58  36  60  36 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20


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