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000
FXUS62 KFFC 050523 CCA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1220 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

...06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track aside from the nudging of temps and dew
points. Should be a cool night under clear skies for the CWA with
temps dropping down into the mid 30s to low 40s across the area
tonight. In addition, another beautiful day in store tomorrow
with highs in the 60s, some areas potentially reaching into the
low 70s across south central Georgia.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 702 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021/

..Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The sensible weather forecast will remain quiet and relatively
uneventful through the short term. Surface high pressure centered to
our west over the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon will be
supplanted by strong high pressure building southward out of Canada
on Friday. This will translate into largely continued quiet
conditions for the forecast area.

The only fly in the ointment is a cutoff upper low presently over
the Rockies along with its attendant weak developing surface low.
The low will be shunted southeastward by the Northwest flow and open
into a shortwave through the day Friday. Thus, only very limited
effects to the area can be expected, generally in the form of
increased high and mid-level clouds by late Friday into Friday
night. Otherwise, the primary forecast concern will revolve around
fire weather which is detailed in the Fire Weather subsection that
follows.

RW

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

High pressure will likely dominate the long term. A cold front on
Saturday will keep a system bringing plenty of rain and
thunderstorms to the the gulf coast well south of the CWA. There is
a chance for some spotty showers across south-central GA but QPF
remains minimal. Overnight lows beginning Saturday could dip below
freezing for areas of far north GA with more widespread areas in the
low 30s as the front moves through, and the cold air mass will
likely limit daytime temperatures to the upper 50s and lower 60s
until Monday. Winds will be out of the NE and gradually turn to the
NE by the time the weekend ends.

Early next week looks similar to the next few days, with high
pressure in control and a very dry airmass in place. As the high
moves off the atlantic coast, winds will gradually begin to have a
more southerly component to them by Tuesday, which marks the
beginning of a temperature increase and marks the end of the fire
weather concerns. As moisture is reintroduced to the area,
temperatures will climb back into the 70s by Wednesday and will
continue to slowly climb toward the mid 70s by late next week.

Vaughn

FIRE WEATHER...

Today: The Fire Danger Statement for the remainder of this afternoon
was expanded to include the remaining portions of Middle Georgia
where RH values have mixed lower than initially forecast.

Friday: Another day with efficient mixing and dry relative humidity
values below critical values is expected on Friday. Reinforcing dry
air will lead to another afternoon of likely Fire Danger conditions,
particularly across north Georgia on Friday with portions of central
Georgia also possibly included. Given expected deep mixing, favored
largely a MAV/MET blend for afternoon dewpoints which results in
lower values than the default blended guidance. Again, limited wind
speeds will preclude Red Flag Conditions. Subsequent shifts will
outline the areal extent of the likely Friday Fire Danger
conditions.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z Update...

VFR conditions will predominate across the forecast area through the
forecast period. High-level cloud coverage increases through the
daytime today with mid-level clouds increasing by 00-06Z. Cannot
rule out some light showers across the area after 00Z, but coverage
should be sparse. Northwest to north winds 6kt or less become north
to northeast 3-7kt by 12-15Z but are expected to edge back to north/
northwest by 19-21z across the Atlanta Metro TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind direction timing. High confidence on all
other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  64  41  58 /   0   5  10   5
Atlanta         41  64  41  57 /   0   5  10   5
Blairsville     34  59  33  54 /   0   0   5   0
Cartersville    36  62  37  59 /   0   5  10   0
Columbus        43  69  44  63 /   0   0  10   5
Gainesville     39  64  40  57 /   0   5  10   5
Macon           40  68  41  62 /   0   5  10   5
Rome            38  62  36  60 /   0   5  10   0
Peachtree City  39  66  40  59 /   0   5  10   5
Vidalia         44  65  44  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Morgan