870
FXUS62 KFFC 080551
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

 - Chances for thunderstorms return today and will increase on
Tuesday.

 - Heat index values of 100-105 degrees will be possible across much
of the forecast area today and Tuesday.

A change in the upper level pattern is underway as troughing sets up
over the Midwest and Great Lakes, which is pushing the weakening
ridge pattern and remnants of Chantal away to the northeast. A
series of shortwaves will round the base of the broader trough
through much of the week as it gradually moves eastward towards the
Atlantic. Atmospheric moisture will steadily increase through the
short term period. At the time of this update, dewpoints range from
the mid 60s to near 70 and precipitable water values range from 1.25-
1.75 inches. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise
into the 90s across all but the higher elevations of far north
Georgia, and will be warmest in portions of east-central Georgia,
where highs will reach into the upper 90s. The combination of hot
temperatures and increasing moisture will yield heat index values
between 100-103 degrees in areas to the south of I-85. Heat index
values will reach into the upper 90s along and to the north.

With a baroclinic zone lingering across the northern Gulf and MUCAPE
values between 1000-1500 J/kg, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
has returned to central Georgia this afternoon, and is expected to
remain mainly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon
through the early evening. With the first of the aforementioned
shortwaves moving through the Tennessee Valley region, a few
isolated storms have also developed across the far northern tier.
Dewpoints and PWATs will continue to rise on Tuesday, and convective
coverage will increase accordingly, with scattered thunderstorms
forecast through the afternoon and early evening. Organized severe
weather is not expected today or tomorrow, but a few storms could
nonetheless become strong and capable of producing frequent
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to today, though the
increase in moisture will contribute to heat index values between
100-105 degrees across all but the higher elevations of far
northeast Georgia. Furthermore, a few spots in east-central Georgia
could see heat indices reach advisory criteria (105-110 degrees) in
the peak heating hours. A Heat Advisory could be issued in an
ensuing update for portions of east-central Georgia on Tuesday if
areas reaching criteria look to be more widespread.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

  - Heat indices peak through mid week with some reaching 100- 108.

  - Diurnal PoPs return with scattered to widespread thunderstorms
    possible, increasing through the end of the week.

Heat Indices peak Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with isolated to
scattered convection, ample moisture, and highs reaching into the
mid and even upper 90s. Dewpoints on Wednesday will be especially
oppressive, reaching 70-75F during peak heating Tuesday.

As we move into mid week, the Bermuda high trends weaker as a series
of weak shortwaves traverse the Ohio Valley. While not super
impressive, these shortwaves will likely be enough to drive low-mid
level flow more consistently out of the southwest. This should
subsequently increase PWATs to a healthy 1.75" to 2.0" by Thursday.
Given the moisture, small upper level divergence provided by the
shortwaves, and warm temperatures, afternoon thunderstorms should
increase to a more widespread mode. Subsequently, models have
decreased high temperatures through this timeframe with increased
convection. Temperatures will still be very hot given humidity (heat
indices near 100). Ensembles continue to favor CAPE values of 1500
to 2000J/Kg each day. Similar to most summertime patterns, a few
storms could become strong to even severe with gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Relatively weak upper level
flow may mean storms move slowly or even sit over the same location
for extended periods of time. No widespread or organized severe
weather is expected at this time given limited shear and upper level
flow support. In addition to disturbances aloft, mesoscale features
like cloud cover/differential heating and outflow boundaries from
earlier convection will govern where exactly storm development is
favored each day.

Increased cloud coverage and afternoon thunderstorms will keep
actual air temperatures down closer to 90 on Thursday and Friday.
While this may seem like good news, high moisture content will keep
heat indices above 100 degrees through week`s end.

Looking even further out to next week, models have begun to hint
(emphasis on hint) at the development of an interesting Gulf high
pressure pattern. Recent model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have fallen
into surprising high agreement across The Gulf for this far out with
fairly low dissuasion from the ensembles. This is still far enough
out that models are very likely to see significant change, though
the 3 sigma 500mb high and sustained PWATs over 2.00" across Gulf
states has this forecaster interested. For now not ringing any alarm
bells, just recommending to keep an eye out.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF period with primarily
FEW-SCT cigs at 4-10kft. ISO to SCT -TSRA is psbl between 18-24Z,
captured by a PROB group for all northern terminals. Winds will
remain out of the W/WSW at 4-7kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA potential.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  74  94 /   0  20  20  60
Atlanta         75  94  75  93 /   0  30  20  70
Blairsville     66  88  66  87 /   0  40  20  80
Cartersville    72  94  72  93 /   0  30  20  70
Columbus        74  95  75  95 /  10  30  20  50
Gainesville     73  94  74  93 /   0  30  20  70
Macon           74  96  75  95 /   0  50  20  60
Rome            71  92  71  91 /   0  30  20  70
Peachtree City  72  94  72  93 /   0  30  20  60
Vidalia         76  95  75  93 /  10  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...96