Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 140001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
701 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018


VFR conds will continue thru the PD. NW winds wl diminish this
evening as high pres center moves ovr AR. Expect W/SW winds by Wed
aftn at arnd 5 kts as the high center slips S of the state. /44/

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 307 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
A northwest wind flow aloft will start the period, with high
pressure over Arkansas at the surface. Under the high, another
freeze is expected tonight over much of the Ozark and Ouachita
Mountains of the north and west. Scattered frost will occur
elsewhere given light winds.

The high will remain in place on Wednesday, but will shift toward
the southeast United States Wednesday night/Thursday. Looking
aloft, some ridging will occur locally, with a warming trend
during the remainder of the near term.

The fly in the ointment will be a back door cold front pushing
southward through the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The
front may sneak into northeast Arkansas to begin the extended

Of more significance will be the large storm system getting ready
to build from the Rockies into the Plains. That will lead to an
unsettled pattern moving forward.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Long term begins with surface High pressure shifting to the east and
southerly flow at the surface returning. This will allow an
approaching storm system to move towards the state from the west.
This system was the main focus of the long term today, however
models have generally remained consistent and few changes were made
to the forecast.

The aforementioned storm system will have the surface low pressure
track just to the north of the state. The result will keep Arkansas
in the warm sector on Friday allowing for destabilization to occur.
Ample wind energy will be in place and as a result it does appear
all modes of severe weather will be possible. However at this point,
it definitely does not appear to be a setup conducive of a
widespread outbreak and will continue to try to keep public
messaging somewhat reflective of that. With upper level flow
perpendicular to the front, precipitation should move through the
state quickly and widespread flooding is not anticipated.

Dry weather follows the system on Saturday...however on Sunday the
models have continued to trend drier with regards to rain chances.
At this point, did trim back rain chances a bit, but did still keep
chances in the forecast across southern portions of the state.

The next storm system moves into the state on Monday to end the long
term. At this point, it does once again look that some stronger to
severe thunderstorms will be possible.  Although at this point it
does appear that instability could be a bit more limited than with
the system on Friday. We will continue to monitor this system as it
gets closer.

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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