290
FXUS64 KLZK 281144
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The scattered convection seen on Fri afternoon has been finally
dissipating early this Sat morning...leaving mostly dry conditions.
However...lowering hgts aloft and weak upper level energy passing
overhead will provide enough for residual outflow boundaries from
Fri afternoon convection to trigger additional convection this Sat
afternoon. Expected isolated to scattered diurnally driven
convection...with coverage peaking mid-late afternoon. Best POPs
will be over central to NRN sections...with coverage/chances less
further south. Not much different expected for Sun as well...with
some additional isolated to scattered convection developing during
the peak heating of the afternoon hrs.

The overall threat for strong to SVR weather will remain low each
day. However...a couple strong to briefly SVR TSRA may be seen. The
main threats will be downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The oppressive heat potential will have decreased over the weekend
as coverage of convection and resulting cloud cover will tend to
keep temps from warming too far. As a result...heat headlines are
not expected at this time. However...there will still be areas that
see heat index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 at times
each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A low amplitude short wave trough will advance across the Upper MS
Valley early in the period. Upper level energy passing near this
trough should increase PoP chances on Monday into Monday night. A
weak frontal boundary should move into and stall out across Nrn half
of AR on Tuesday and Wednesday with the passage of the trough axis.
By Wednesday and Thursday, upper level ridging is anticipated to
build over the Srn Rockies and move into the region. This will serve
to push the frontal boundary back to the N and E of AR. Despite
synoptic scale ridging over the Mid-S providing large scale forcing
for subsidence, upper level energy should track around the Wrn
periphery of the ridge, continuing scattered precipitation chances
on Thursday and Friday across the Natural State.

Given the aforementioned features in place, diurnally driven
convection will be possible nearly each day. PoP chances will be
greatest in closer proximity to the stalled boundary Monday through
Wednesday. While precipitation is not expected to be as widespread
on Thursday and Friday, near equal chances exists across the CWA.

With anticipated scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in
coverage each afternoon, this in combination with additional cloud
cover should keep temps a few degrees cooler than what has been
observed recently. Thinking highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Combining expected temps with dew points in the mid 60s/mid
70s, heat index values should remain below 105 degrees across a
large portion of the state. At this time, heat headlines would
likely not be needed, but will be evaluated on a day by day basis.

Atmospheric PW values are expected to range from 1.5 to over 2
inches through the period ahead of the boundary. Where showers and
thunderstorms develop, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Isolated flash flooding could develop if storms train over the same
locations or cells become stationary near the boundary. Pooling of
moisture just to the S of the boundary increases confidence in
isolated areas of decent rainfall in excess of 2 inches. Widespread
severe weather is not expected, however gusty winds and perhaps
small hail will be possible with the strongest of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected today into the evening hours.
Better PoP chances will remain over Cntrl into Nrn terminals. More
uncertainty exists regarding PoP timing/coverage over Srn sites
thus addressed with TEMPO and PROB30 groups attm. Winds will be
variable between 5-10 kts today. Overall, VFR conds are
anticipated to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  72  88  75 /  70  30  60  20
Camden AR         93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
Harrison AR       82  70  88  72 /  70  20  50  30
Hot Springs AR    90  73  93  75 /  40  20  30  10
Little Rock   AR  91  74  91  76 /  50  30  40  10
Monticello AR     93  75  90  76 /  30  20  30  10
Mount Ida AR      89  72  91  74 /  40  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR  82  70  87  72 /  80  30  60  30
Newport AR        90  74  90  76 /  60  30  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     92  74  90  75 /  40  20  40  10
Russellville AR   87  73  92  74 /  60  20  40  10
Searcy AR         90  72  90  74 /  60  30  50  10
Stuttgart AR      92  75  90  77 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70