827
FXUS64 KLZK 071136
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

-Weak disturbances within northwest flow will promoted chances for
 scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday.

-Hot and humid conditions will continue but remain just under
 criteria as Heat index values will remain below advisory
 criteria.

-Temperatures will warm further with mid to upper 90s this weekend
 with heat index values as high as 105 by Friday and possibly
 through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Latest satellite and radar shows mid and high level cloudiness
over portions of eastern and northeastern Arkansas this morning
associated with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. The pair
of thunderstorms are within the periphery of a deeper moisture
and theta e ridge centered over eastern Arkansas. Shower and
thunderstorms are very slowly moving east with period of locally
heavy rainfall possible over White county this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will gradually weaken as the move east and
likely exit the CWA before sunrise. As we head into this
afternoon, a weak shortwave will rotate around the periphery of
the large upper level ridge centered over the Desert southwest
this afternoon ahead of a cold front located over portions of
central and northwestern Missouri. The shortwave will push
southeast across eastern and southeastern Kansas into southern
Missouri this afternoon. The disturbance will provide enough lift
to initiate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with the
highest chances closer to the shortwave over portions of northern
and central Arkansas.

By tonight, the upper level ridge across the Desert southwest will
strengthen. At the same time, a cut off low/trough off the coast
of southern California will then move northward in response to
increasing heights over the desert southwest. By Wednesday
morning, guidance shows the trough/cut off low becoming an open
short wave. As the disturbance moves ashore in northern
California, the ridge across the Desert southwest will deamplify
and begin to flatten. The short wave will trek eastward quickly
across the Great Basin into central Plains on Thursday along the
northern perhiphery of the upper ridge over the Desert southwest
region. This will allow weak northwest flow to continue with weak
disturbances within the flow trekking over the mid south and
central Plains ahead of a frontal boundary over Missouri with
diurnal uptick in shower and thunderstorms each afternoon on
Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday through early next week, upper level ridging over the
Desert southwest will slide westward to into far southern
California along the International Border. By Friday night, the
ridge over southern California will begin to strengthen. On the
heels of the front shortwave, a second shortwave will quickly move
southeast out of the Alberta providence of Canada. The short wave
will move through the northern Plains before moving back into
Ontario providence by Saturday night. This will keep the state in
northwest flow through Saturday night with shortwaves moving
around the periphery of the troughs moving through the
northern/central plains. There will be enough ascent with
shortwaves over Missouri to promote isolated to scattered showers
and isolated showers through Saturday mainly across north and
northeast Arkansas. Finally, on Sunday into Monday, upper level
ridging builds across much of the mid south and southeast with
temperatures as early as Friday moving into the mid to upper 90s
and persisting through early next week. The combination of mid to
upper 90s and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will lead to heat
index values as high as 105. If forecast trends continue with
those values, then heat headlines may be needed sometime on Friday
and possible into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Light S/SW winds will persist through the day. By this afternoon,
a weak disturbance within northwest flow will initiate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of central,
northern and eastern Arkansas around 17z. Have elected to place
PROB30 groups for -TSRA at KHRO, KBPK, and KLIT as hi-res and
short term guidance has been persist with SHRA/TSRA coverage this
afternoon into the evening hours. A brief degradation of flight
category to MVFR is possible along with gusty outflow winds from
thunderstorms will be the only impacts to aviation. Light and
variable winds are expected after sunset after all convection
dissipates. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  72  91  72 /  60  30  60  30
Camden AR         96  72  93  72 /  40  20  60  20
Harrison AR       88  70  87  69 /  50  20  70  30
Hot Springs AR    96  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  30
Little Rock   AR  95  75  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
Monticello AR     95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
Mount Ida AR      94  72  90  72 /  50  20  70  30
Mountain Home AR  88  70  88  70 /  60  20  70  30
Newport AR        93  74  92  73 /  50  20  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     95  73  92  73 /  40  20  50  20
Russellville AR   93  72  92  72 /  50  20  60  30
Searcy AR         94  72  92  72 /  50  20  50  30
Stuttgart AR      94  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly