532
FXUS63 KMKX 130759
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky conditions aloft and near the surface from Canadian
  wildfires expected today resulting in minor visibility
  reductions and a WI DNR issued Air Quality Alert across all
  of southern WI.

- Dry weather expected through start of the week, then
  increasing chances (20-60%) for multiple rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Today and Tonight:

Quieter end to the weekend as high pressure skirts south of the
Great Lakes today. Will see lighter westerly winds prevail
across much of the area. Meanwhile upper-level northwesterly
flow is set up across the Upper Midwest on the backside of the
departing trough. This looks to bring in smoky conditions from
the Canadian wildfires to WI. Expecting hazy and filtered skies
from the smoke today, but also could see it mix down to the
surface. The latest HRRR runs continue to depict a swath of near
surface smoke to work its way across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley and into WI through the morning. Overall expecting
hazy surface visibility around 5-6 miles at times through the
day. Otherwise, WI DNR has issued a Air Quality Alert for these
smoky conditions as it reaches unhealthy levels, especially for
sensitive groups. Conditions are progged to improve through the
evening as more zonal upper-level flow builds aloft and
southerly surface flow moves into the region.

Hazy skies may also impact temps today given the filtered
sunlight, but still looking at near normal temps and relatively
drier dewpoints. Highs still look to top off in the upper 70s to
lower 80s across southern WI, while overnight lows dip into the
60s.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the week under the
upper level zonal flow. Southerly flow in the mid and low levels
will keep up WAA up. Highs will be warming Monday into the
upper 80s and in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday. Similar to the
end of last week, there will be a small chance around 15% for
some showers Monday afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will be
moving through the state and could provide enough lift with
diurnal heating and moisture to get some isolated
showers/storms.

A more active pattern will move in arrives later Tuesday
through Thursday. The zonal flow will remain in place until
Wednesday,but multiple shortwaves will move through the upper
level flow. A trough in the Pacific Northwest will begin to
swing east into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region for
Wednesday. At the sfc a frontal boundary will remain mostly
stationary across northern/central Wisconsin and northern
Michigan. This frontal boundary will be a focus point for
multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Models are all over
the place on timing and placement of individual rounds. Its
tough to predict which ones will move into southern Wisconsin
and when especially this far out in advance. Each rounds
evolution will depend on the round prior to it. This system will
slowly move out to the east overtime leading to drier
conditions for the end of the weekend and into the weekend.
Guidance suggests high pressure moving in for Friday and
lingering in the Great Lakes Region for the start of the
weekend.

Temperatures for the midweek and into the weekend will be right
around normal/average in the low to mid 80s. Persistent
overcast skies and rain could drops temps a bit lower at times,
but will have to keep an eye on the rain evolution as we get
closer to mid week.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure passing to the south will bring light westerly
winds to southern WI today. While expecting drier conditions
and some high clouds, Canadian wildfire smoke is progged to move
into southern WI bring hazy, filtered sky cover and periods of
minor reduced surface visibility generally between 5-6sm
through the afternoon. Smoky conditions expected to improve
through the evening hours and VFR conditions will prevail into
Monday.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 255 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Lighter westerly winds expected today as high pressure moves
across the southern portions of the Great Lakes into Monday.
Southerly flow then returns to Lake Michigan on Monday as the
high pushes further east. Increasing southerly winds are
expected Tuesday through midweek as a low pressure system
develops across the Plains and moves across the Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday into Thursday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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