901
FXUS63 KMKX 062058
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
358 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy today, with gusts to 35 MPH. Continued breezy tomorrow
  and Saturday, but with gusts closer to 20-25 MPH.

- Spotty showers this afternoon and early evening, especially
  north and east of a line from Milwaukee to the Dells.

- Additional rain chances on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Tonight and Friday:

Isolated to scattered showers are developing across central and
east central Wisconsin this afternoon. At western edge of large
scale cyclonic flow and with some minimal mid level moisture to
work with, its just enough to get some light rain/drizzle out
of the stratocumulus deck. The best chances for rain will
continue to be areas along and north of a line from the Dells to
Watertown to Milwaukee through the rest of this afternoon and
into the early evening hours. As we head toward dusk, we will
lose diurnal heating and the large scale ascent will shift
slightly east out of the state. This will bring an end to the
light rain/drizzle.

Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies will make a return. The
breezy west winds will briefly decrease overnight and
temperatures will cool quickly under the clear skies. Overnight
low temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s. With dew
point temperatures expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s
overnight there is a very small chance (10% or less) for some
fog to develop. Given the breezy winds, only areas that are
sheltered from the wind will be able to produce some radiation
fog.

Tomorrow the breezy west to northwest winds will pick back up
again. The low pressure system in Canada is continuing to
gradually move east while sfc high pressure will be passing to
our southeast which will keep the pressure gradient tight over
the state. This pressure gradient will slowly relax throughout
the day. Gusts are expected to be slight lower tomorrow than
they were today toping out around 25-30 MPH. By Friday evening
winds will be much lower with gusts quickly dropping below 15
MPH (especially near dusk). Dry conditions are expected Friday.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday night through Thursday:

Late Friday into late Saturday morning a warm front is expected
to lift northward toward the Great Lakes Region from the Central
Plains. As this warm front lifts northward toward the state,
there will be a chance for rain and a few rumbles of thunder.
Guidance is trying to hint at warm front actually making it into
the state for a portion of the day which is what opens the door
for a bit more thunder. The most aggressive model to bring the
warm front northward is the NAM, but that seems to be depicting
more of the extreme. Strong warm air advection will be in place,
which will lead to increasing temperatures and moisture.
However, the NAM seem to take that and amplify it. This just
highlights some of the discrepancies in the placement of the
front well. The long and short here is that POPs did increase,
but the placement of the front will play a big roll in how much
rain we see and if there is a potential for a few rumbles of
thunder or not.

Another front will drop south through the state Sunday, but
there is a potential that this frontal passage is a bit more dry
than previously anticipated. The amount of moisture available is
trending lower which will give the cooler temperatures aloft and
sfc frontogenesis less to work with. Dry weather is expected
behind this frontal passage through the start of the work week
as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes Region.

Tuesday and Wednesday bring out next potential chance for some
rain and a few storms. There is still a lot of uncertainty out
this far, but there will be a shift to southerly flow ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. This low pressure system
will likely pass through the northern Great Lakes Region which
would give the state an opportunity to see some rain along a
potential warm front and then again along a cold front. The big
questions right now with this system are timing and track. Thus
POP chances are low in the extended around 30% or lower.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 357 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the period. A scattered to
broken stratocumulus deck of clouds is beginning to develop
across central Wisconsin late this morning. These clouds are
expected to be around 4-6 kft through the afternoon. There will
be a small chance (around 20%) for some light rain
showers/drizzle this afternoon for terminals along and north of
a line from the Dells (DLL) to Milwaukee (MKE). The best chances
will be for terminals near central Wisconsin including Fond du
Lac (FLD) and Sheboygan (SBM).

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through the day with
gusts of 25-30 kts expected. Overnight winds will weakens
slightly as we loose some diurnal mixing. The breezy to gusty
winds will pick back up again tomorrow but will be slightly
weaker with gusts of 20-25 kts expected.


Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 357 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Gusty west winds are expected through Saturday, as low pressure
of 29.2 inches slowly advects eastward across northern Ontario.
Winds will be strongest through this evening, with a gradual
reduction in speed through Saturday. Winds then are expected to
turn more northerly on Sunday, as another cold front sweeps
through the region. High pressure of 30.0 inches will move through
on Monday, with winds taking on a more southerly direction on
Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters
through Friday evening due to the gusty west winds. Gusts
through this evening will be between 30-35 MPH. Overnight a
brief lull in the gusts is possible with the winds expected to
pick back up again around daybreak. Friday`s winds will be a bit
weaker with gusts expected to top out around 25-30 mph. By
Friday evening the winds will weaken considerably with gusts
dropping below 15 MPH by dusk.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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