Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 110342
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAIL OVER SRN WI AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THU.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL THEN INCREASE LATE THU AFT
AND NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET AND COLD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY STORY WILL BE THE VERY COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS WEAK CAA PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DRIES
OUT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND 925 TEMPS AROUND -17C BY
MORNING. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...ENDED UP GOING A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT CLOUDS OVER MN/IA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THAT WERE
TO HAPPEN...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. HOWEVER...AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA.

THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTH...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ONCE THE HIGH
GETS TO OUR SOUTH...LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SWING AROUND TO THE WSW AND THE CAA WILL TRANSITION TO WAA. GUIDANCE
HAS THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...SO
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

REGION UNDER SOUTHERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND CLOSED 500 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY. MOST MODELS KEEP FORCING AND SNOW WITH
CLIPPER...TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SYSTEM TODAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...TO
THE SW OF FORECAST AREA THOUGH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY. WPC KEEPING CWA DRY AS WELL. ADDED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FAR
SW BUT OTHERWISE NO MEASURABLE PCPN.

CLOUDS AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY
STEADY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL TOWARDS
DAYBREAK BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. INCREASING
SUN AS CLOUDS DEPART WILL BE OFFSET BY COLD ADVECTION...WITH MIDDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15F AND 20F THEN FALLING TEMPS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

COLD ADVECTION AS COLD HIGH BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT
DROPS 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SINGLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO LOWS INLAND...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TEMPS ALONG
THE LAKE SEEM REASONABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HOLDING
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
-20 BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z SATURDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

925 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY MODIFYING A FEW DEGREES UPWARD DURING THE
DAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 10 ABOVE...WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND A BIT OF MIXING FROM DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AS HIGH SLIDES EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DIPPING LOWER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO REACHED AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY READINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TEMPERATES BEGIN TO MODERATE UPWARD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT IT WILL ALSO MARK AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH
FREQUENT SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

THOUGH THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND HOLDS OFF
LIGHT SNOW UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FOCUS
HEAVIEST QPF TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER
WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE. GFS HAS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
HAS PHASED THE WEAK NORTHERN WAVE AND SOUTHERN STRONGER WAVE WITH A
BIT MORE QPF OVER THE STATE ALONG THE RESULTING WEAK INVERTED TROUGH.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE A UNIFORM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 6 AM SUNDAY AND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AMONG THE MODELS. ECMWF STILL DEPICTING A STRONG LOW
DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
VERSUS MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ON THE GFS. CURRENT TRACK OF
ECMWF SURFACE LOW WOULD PUT CWA IN MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...THEN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS TREND IS CORROBORATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH
SHOWS THE NARROW BAND OF MVFR/VFR BROKEN CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING.
THESE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING. ONCE THEY DO SO...SKIES ARE PROGGED TO STAY LARGELY CLOUD
FREE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND WAVES
ARE FORECASTED TO DO SO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED
THE END TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP TO 00Z THURSDAY.&&

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM


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