Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210925
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT-TO BE ISSUED SOON

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STACKED AND FILLING LOW MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST DAKOTA INTO IOWA.  THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THERMAL
PROFILES AROUND 850MB TO BE COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH OF A LAPSE RATE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STALE COLD AIR AT SURFACE TO PERMIT TEMPERATURES
TO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S.  CERTAINLY COULD BE MIX OF RAIN AND WET
SNOW...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS RAIN.

LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR WILL BE WETTEST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

NOT SURE HOW TO WORD THIS...BUT IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE I HAVE
SEEN THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN A DAY 3 FORECAST.  OPERATIONAL GFS AND
SREF HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND SOUTH TOWARD LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH 2ND LOW PRESSURE WAVE...WHILE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS
FOCUS ON MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

AT FIRST GLANCE THE GEFS AND SREF SOLUTIONS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A
DREADED GULF LOW TRACK WITH HEAVY WET SNOW POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WITH TREND OF OTHER RELIABLE MODELS LIKE ECMWF TOWARD
ABSENCE OF DEEP LOW OVER GREAT LAKES...SEE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION OR SNOW BEING GREATER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM.

RIGHT NOW A CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS FORECAST IS THE ONLY VIABLE
OPTION I SEE.  IT LOOKS LIKE GRADUAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN GOING TO SNOW WITH LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FAST MOVING LOW COMING OUT
OF KANSAS AHEAD OF A POLAR SURGE AND THEN HEADING FOR THE GREAT
LAKES. A FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND IS SHOWN TO PUSH FROM NEBRASKA TO
IOWA AND WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THIS BAND WOULD BE RATHER NARROW...SO MIGHT ONLY AFFECT 2-3 COUNTY
WIDE AREA AND COULD EASILY MISS MOST AREAS.  BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS
LIGHT AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN HALF OF AREA.
&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

TO BE ISSUED SOON

&&

.MARINE...

TO BE ISSUED SOON

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CRAVEN


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