Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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240
FXUS63 KMPX 180441 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Little in the way of weather concerns in the short term.

The latest water vapor imagery is a rather vigorous short wave
moving through southern Saskatchewan. Models still move this
system east southeast across northern MN toward the western Great
Lakes tonight and Thursday. Looks like we may work some mid/high
level clouds across the northeast cwa during the period but it
still looks like it should remain dry.

South southwest low level flow to continue during the period and
will help temperatures warmer tonight with readings generally in
the teens. The warm start Thursday morning should allow readings
to warm through the lower 40s to the southwest and through the
30s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The main focus of the long term remains model
development/movement of the western CONUS trough over the central
Plains beginning this weekend.

Current water vapor imagery shows a potent trough over the
eastern Pacific this afternoon. This feature comes ashore later
Friday and digs to the southwest over the southern Rockies into
Saturday. Cyclogenesis occur late Saturday night or early Sunday
morning over the Colorado/Oklahoma panhandle region and deepens as
it lifts northeast toward northeast Iowa by Sunday evening. The
overall model trend has been to slow the system somewhat and
develop a closed circulation as it lifts east/northeast. The
deterministic models have been trying to lift warmer air into the
southeast portion of the cwa as they have moved the surface low a
bit farther to the north. There, we could see a mixed
type/rain/sleet and or freezing rain into part of the south into
Sunday.

The main brunt of the storm moves through Sunday night through
Monday. If the system deepens like most models indicate at the
moment, heavy snow will be a definite possibility across southern
MN into western WI. Looking at the 12z Probability Plots of
greater than 6 inches of snow, the axis of the ensembles snow
band has lifted a little farther north, which would tend to favor
more of east central MN and west central WI. The GEFS plumes
continue to show a wide spread in forecast QPF/SNOWFALL and this
will likely continue until until the trough moves ashore Friday
evening.

We did follow the overall blended model guidance this run in the
PoP as confidence increases with the storm system. We did
increase winds Sunday night into Monday night, with some gust at
least 35 mph. If the system deepens as depicted, we could see the
potential for significant blowing and drifting snow and possible
blizzard conditions over parts of the west.

Temperatures will warm through the 40s to the southwest leading up
to the system Sunday, and this should leave a decent crust in any
snow cover over the area. We will continue to monitor model
trends but it does appear southern MN and western WI will be
affected by this storm system by late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions and southwest winds 5-10 kts are expected through
the period. Clear skies are expected throughout much of the next
24 hours, except mid level clouds will increase for a brief time
late tonight into Thursday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind light and variable.
Sun...VFR early, IFR or lower with SN or wintry mix likely Sunday
night. Wind NE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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