Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 130458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.UPDATE...For 06z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 413 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Pretty quiet weatherwise across much of the center of the nation
today, aside from some gusty winds which are beginning to subside
late this afternoon. Clear skies this afternoon will give way to
some high clouds tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures range
from the low to mid 40s across western Minnesota to mid to upper
30s over the snowpack of western Wisconsin. Light winds tonight
will allow temperatures to drop off into the teens east, but bare
ground will keep milder readings near the Minnesota river.

Thermal ridging will bring even warmer highs Monday as a system
passes well to the north. 925 mb temps vary more than usual
amongst the models so there is a bit of uncertainty with how high
temps may reach. The ECMWF has been the superior performer over
the NAM/GFS recently and seems to be handling the lack of a
snowpack across southern MN better. It is also the warmest
solution with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s so did raise highs
toward those readings.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 413 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

The entire long term period continues to look quite dry and mild,
although there will be a brief cool down for midweek behind a
cold front associated with the clipper across central Canada. High
pressure settling southeastward across northern Minnesota should
keep the coldest air locked up there, but we will return to more
normal temperature levels briefly through Wednesday.

An Omega pattern will take hold late week and next weekend with deep
troughs near both coasts and the polar jet to the north. This will
allow thicknesses to build to around 560DM Friday with 925 mb
temps off both the GFS/ECMWF soaring into the +6 to +12C range. If
we mix that deep, temps would be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Continued to go with warmer readings than what blended guidance
generates for the Fri-Sun timeframe given the cold bias with
2-meter temps due the dwindling snowpack.

A large cyclone may develop just beyond the period in the western
Plains as energy from the deep western trough finally gets kicked
eastward. This will reinvigorate the southerly flow for early
next week and bring better moisture northward. Extensive cloudiness
with showers and potentially thunderstorms should keep temperatures
from getting out of control by Monday, but overnight lows may
approach records in the low to mid 40s Sunday night - about 30
degrees above normal!


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions will occur through the period with only few-sct high
clouds and westerly winds.

High confidence in VFR with no concerns.

TUE...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.




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