Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181735 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Sunny and cool with light winds today. There really isn`t much
else to say about the weather other than that. Early morning water
vapor imagery continued to show upper level ridging across the
Midwest. A weak shortwave was located upstream over south central
Canada, but this become washed out with weakening winds as it
slowly moves eastward. Pwat values will linger around 0.50
inches...which is testament to the dry airmass that is in place
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Forecast models continue to advertise a more active weather
pattern next week as southwest flow brings increased boundary
layer moisture together with upper level forcing for ascent. The
end result will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
for most of next week.

Starting out, moisture will increase slightly as H925 winds become
southerly as the high pressure moves eastward. However there is
not a sustained feed off the Gulf, so only expect modest increases
in boundary layer moisture. Dewpoints will go from the mid 30s
today, to mid 40s Friday, and mid 50s Monday.

Although this will be a noticeable change, the mid 50s dewpoints
is arguably the limiting factor for strong to severe thunderstorms
next week. Mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8C will move across the
region, but the relatively dry boundary layer only yields SBCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for convection,
but not anticipating a significant threat for widespread severe
weather unless we are able to generate more instability. However,
the deep layer shear profiles are favorable, showing veering with
height, and around 30 to 40 kts of shear in the 0-6km layer. For
that reason do not want to rule out the threat for severe weather.
Afterall it is getting close to the end of May, and the set up as
is should produce a few strong thunderstorms. If the instability
become more favorable, then will see a much better potential for
severe storms on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

FEW to SCT CU are developing across Minnesota early this
afternoon with bases above 7kft. These will quickly diminish
after sunset. Winds have been erratic with the mesoscale pattern
not favoring a uniform flow. Speed and direction will be mostly
governed by thermals for the rest of the afternoon.

KMSP...No additional issues.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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