Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 290034
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
734 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FOCI ARE CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE...FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH THE TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD AND JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE SPOTTY ACTIVITY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANES AROUND SUNSET...AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

ON MONDAY...WE WILL HAVE MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FILTERING
OVERHEAD...AND THIS TIME THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX TO MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING.
MEANWHILE...WE WILL STILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
COMING INTO PLAY. THESE FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PROVIDE NEARLY
30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE DEWPOINTS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MUSTER FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY HOWEVER...SO
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THE MORE
DEVELOPED SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN/SERN MN. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE EVENING
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE 400-500 FT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE THREATENING TO BRING SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH SO
NOW ANTICIPATING DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SEEMINGLY PERMANENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH IT SO KEPT LOW TO MEDIUM POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BUT INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS DRY.

THE NORTHWEST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WARMER TEMPS SHOULD SLIDE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ANY REAL
HEAT WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE PLAINS. FORCING ON THE
FRONT SHOULD DICTATE COVERAGE OF STORMS NEXT SUNDAY WITH POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR...BUT THE WILDCARD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN THE LOW LYING AREAS
THAT RECIEVED RAINFALL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KMSP...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP HAS ENDED AT KMSP. FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT KMSP. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE AT 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS ENE AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB


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