Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121016
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
416 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Clouds will continue to spread southeast across southern and eastern
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin during the pre dawn
hours. These clouds will linger through the morning before winds
become more westerly in western Minnesota, allowing for drier air
and clouds to clear. The clouds will likely linger in eastern
Minnesota until sunset, with clouds remaining in western Wisconsin
through the evening. Temperatures will reflect the cloud cover as
readings will slowly rise into the 30s. Out west, more sunshine this
afternoon will lead to highs in the 40s.

Overnight, skies will remain clear to partly cloudy with patchy fog
likely. Winds will back to the south as the next storm system
approaches from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Mild and moist air will flow northward early week ahead of a cold
front set to push through Tuesday evening. Negative omega
throughout a shallow but saturated lower level airmass should
allow patchy/areas of drizzle to develop Monday evening and
continue through Tuesday, mainly across eastern MN and western WI.
The boundary layer itself may be a bit drier if it can warm as
much as the GFS/ECMWF indicate. That would limit the overall
extent of the drizzle, especially Tuesday. There could be some
freezing drizzle in western WI Monday evening before warmer air
continues to advect in overnight. Not expecting any impacts given
the very light/patchy nature of any drizzle. Increased highs
Monday and Tuesday despite the cloud cover closer to the GFS/ECMWF
and their MOS products. Advection matters more than the weak
sunshine of this time of year for daytime temperatures.

Steadier rain may develop as the front passes through, but it
should be short-lived with drier already moving in late Tuesday
evening. High pressure dropping southeast across the region Wednesday
night may allow temperatures to drop into the teens.

Models are showing more consistency for the late week system.
Details are still murky, but what appears to be one constant is
the system will begin with a northern stream short wave traversing
southern Canada and a southern stream wave rounding the central
Rockies Thursday night. The two will phase somewhere over the
Upper Midwest or the Great Lakes and generate a strong cyclone to
the east of the Great Lakes this weekend. Impacts locally appear
low in this scenario with cold air likely arriving during the tail
end of the precip when the system becomes more negatively tilted.
If the northern stream system slows then things may get a little
more interesting.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

MVFR-level stratus clouds in the wake of a cold front will build
in overnight, particularly at northern/eastern sites
(KEAU/KRNH/KMSP/KSTC/KAXN). Ceilings around 1500 feet are
expected. Prior to the cloud cover building in (including the
advance of high clouds from the west), patchy fog will be possible
over west central WI. This could briefly affect KEAU/KRNH, but
expect the clouds to fill in fairly soon thus ending the dense fog
threat. Expect the stratus deck to scatter out by early Sunday
afternoon, although eastern sites in WI (KRNH/KEAU) could stay
socked in until Monday, or only briefly scatter out late Sunday
afternoon before filling back in. Light and variable to northwest
winds at 4-6 knots overnight, back to the west then southwest
throughout the period.

KMSP...

Expect MVFR clouds develop overnight, with bases expected to be
below 1700 ft through Sunday morning before scattering out during
the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.
Tue...MVFR, with -dz late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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