000
FXUS63 KMPX 110921
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE LLJ SUBSIDES AND SLIDES TO THE
EAST. WE EXPECT AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND
WARM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN WHERE MID TO UPPER
80S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE.

SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NOTICEABLY LACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT HANGING BACK ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST NE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS MORNING. THIS FOLLOWS A NICE CORRIDOR OF 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN RESPONSE TO A 35-45KT LLJ JET. THE MERRIMAN PROFILER
AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWED 45KTS AT 850MB. THIS SAME CORRIDOR OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF PWATS
BETWEEN 1.6"-1.9". THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION LOCALLY IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE THAT MADE IT`S WAY OUT OF THE DAKOTAS LAST
NIGHT. RAINFALL OF 1-4" HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF DOUGLAS...TODD
AND MORRISON THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CONTINUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE 850-300MB THICKNESS RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE DOES TRANSVERSE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT
WITH THE LLJ DECREASING AND THE CONVECTION OUT-RUNNING THE BEST
MUCAPE...CHANCE POPS ARE PROBABLY THE BEST FIT AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING AT A VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THE FLOW TURNS QUITE BAGGY OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A WEAK CDFNT WILL DROP THRU THE REGION DURG THE DAY ON
SAT...LEADING TO THE HIGHEST ADVERTISED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MN INTO
SWRN WI...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SAT AFTN-EVE BEFORE THE WX SETTLES
DOWN GOING INTO SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE CDFNT DEPARTS. THIS COLD
FROPA WILL ALSO BE THE START OF THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A VERY DEEP
UPR LVL LOW PRES CENTER FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MORE POTENT CDFNT
WILL DROP THRU THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON...AND IT IS THIS CDFNT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEP COLD POOL OF AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THAT WILL MAKE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WX. A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER SUN INTO
MON WITH THE STRONG COLD FROPA AND THE UPR LOW OVHD. IN FACT... ON
MON...WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW AND SEVERAL SHTWV
DISTURBANCE ROTATING ARND THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS UPR LOW AND ACRS
THE MPX CWFA...SOME SHWRS WITH GRAUPEL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
THE AMPLE COLD AIR ALOFT. REGARDLESS OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE MAIN
STORY WITH THIS FROPA AND COLD UPR LVL LOW WILL BE THE VERY
NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 DEG C...WHICH WHEN TRANSLATED TO THE
SFC...SPELL HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S ON MON AND TUE. GRADUAL
MODERATION IS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL
ONLY PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S ON WED THEN TO THE MID 70S
ON THU. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE AN
EXPANSIVE AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT HIGH PRES DOME ACRS THE AREA WHICH
WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING FOR LATE TUE ON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND SOUTH AND TOWARD KRWF AND KSTC BY 09Z. STILL APPEARS TO BE
A FEW HOURS OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PICTURE
IS NOT AS CLEAR FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND POINTS EAST. IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL AROUND 12Z FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS TO REACH KMSP AND
THROUGH 16Z ON OVER TO KEAU. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO
INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS (025-030) AT KAXN...KSTC AND
KRWF FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWEST INDICATED
CEILINGS FOR KMSP AND POINTS EAST ON FRIDAY WAS 035. MUCH OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEAU WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED.

KMSP...ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER 11Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NEAR MVFR CEILINGS (035)
INDICATED FOR THE LATE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH