Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 212054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END BY 8-9 PM AS A
BROAD SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MN.

WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO
THE MID 60S IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY...AS OUR
AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS ONTARIO AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS...BUT MUCH WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO THE EAST OF A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN ON SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN MN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING MODEST CAPE VALUES
AROUND OR LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM THIS TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR
CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN...BUT THE MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA...AND WE REMAIN UNDER
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

A WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM WC WI...SW ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES...TO NEAR MANKATO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6
HRS...AND WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THIS
WEAK FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL FORM IN AN AREA THAT CLEARED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-4SM IN SHRA/S IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS
WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AND GUSTY.

KMSP...

CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS THRU THE EARLY AFTN 18-20Z
IS HIGH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SE THIS
AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO IFR AT
TIMES THRU THE AFTN...BUT ONLY LASTING 5-10 MINS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI AFTN...VFR. WIND ENE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA PSBL IN THE AFTN/EVE. WIND ESE 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH -SHRA/TS. WIND SE 10-15KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADL
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...JLT



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