Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
250 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A busy weather day today with a low pressure system screaming east
through central MN.  Widespread showers and some thunderstorms have
come to an end, but more showers and thunderstorms will be on the
way tomorrow with the next system.

The winds will remain gusty through the daylight hours before
diminishing overnight.  The tough part of the forecast is whether or
not the low clouds hang around as high pressure builds in from the
northwest.  The clouds could become trapped under the inversion and
stratus linger all night.  On the flip side, the guidance has
repeatedly overdone low level moisture this spring, leading to a
more pessimistic forecast than reality has shown.  Leaning toward
mostly mid and high clouds, with fog possible when winds become
lighter overnight.

For tomorrow, more rain is forecast to move in, from the south this
time.  This next system will lift northeast out of Colorado with the
warm front advancing through much of Iowa.  Widespread rain to the
north of the front, along with weak elevated instability will lift
into southern MN in the afternoon.  Raised pops to near 100% in this
area where agreement is very high among the models.  Thunder should
be scattered or isolated and we do not expect severe weather at this

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The longer term concerns remain timing/development of the trough
through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Then some threat
of frost later Thursday night over the northeast cwa and possibly
Sunday mornings well.

The longer term deterministic models drive the upper trough east
across the area into Thursday morning. This will promote categorical
PoPs across most of the area Wednesday night and trailing to the
east through Thursday morning. Clouds are expected to remain most of
the day to the east and will limit overall heating potential to the
east Thursday afternoon. Drier air works in then Friday night as
high pressure drops south. This should promote a clearing sky and
light winds. Temperatures should be able to cool to the lower 30s
across the north and east cwa by Friday morning with some frost
potential. Still have time to monitor model trends as the GFS is
trying to force a secondary wave dropping in behind the retreating

Following this system we should see dry and warmer conditions
developing into the weekend. The models continue to show a weak cold
front dropping into the region later Saturday night into Sunday but
it appears weak at this time. We retained the small chance of
showers over mainly across the northern cwa Saturday night and again
Sunday night. The next trough moves into the area Monday into


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Surface low streaking east across central MN, with strong
southerly winds ahead of the trailing cool front, but will quickly
switch to a westerly direction this afternoon. Plenty of MVFR cigs
behind the front except far southern MN has seen some clearing.
The winds will diminish greatly tonight, and the main concern is
the model guidance slamming 1.5kft ceilings into the area all
night. Thinking that the guidance is overdoing moisture, a
tendency so far this spring in these situations, so we are
leaning toward an optimistic forecast with SCT skies at those

KMSP...The wind will switch to westerly quickly this afternoon,
perhaps by 20Z. Gusts will continue through the afternoon, but
diminish tonight.

Thu...MVFR Cigs possible early then VFR. Wind NE at 5-10kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind light and variable.




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