000
FXUS63 KMPX 272120
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN
CITIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR
EASTERN WI COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE
STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY SHOWING MINOR SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SOME BREAKS MAY REACH NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD KSTC...BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS FROM KRWF TO KAXN SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY THIS EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND OF THESE AREAS DO IMPROVE TO LOW
MVFR...THEY MAY GO BACK DOWN UNDER 010 LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MVFR BR DEVELOPING.

KMSP...BACKED AWAY FROM ANY VFR CEILINGS UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW ALLOWING FOR CLEARING OVER
IA TO REACH IN. THE VFR TREND DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST LONG
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NGT...MVFR. CHC -SN/FZDZ WIND E 5 KT BCMG NW 10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH