000
FXUS63 KMPX 050900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

AFTER A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS THINGS WILL BE SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN MOST RESPECTS... ALTHOUGH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW
WIND CHILLS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY... WITH
CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKING TO LAST INTO THIS EVENING.
WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE PERSISTENT STRATOCU WITH THIS
SCENARIO... AND WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH THAT IN MIND. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE FAIRLY SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD IS CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN... AS WE COULD WIND UP WITH MAINLY
ICE CRYSTAL CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF MILKY SUNSHINE THROUGH WHAT WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE LOW-LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS RATHER THAN THE MORE TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU.
THE 11-3.9 MICRON SORT OF SUGGESTS THAT MAY ALREADY BE THE CASE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... BUT WE/LL NEED TO
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS LOOK THIS MORNING WHEN WE GET SOME VISIBLE
IMAGES. SO... AS MENTIONED... WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BEFORE ALLOWING THINGS TO SCATTER
OUT AS RIDGING STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. BUT... COULD WIND UP
WITH A BIT OF A SURPRISE DURING THE DAY WITH CEILOMETERS SHOWING
CLOUDS WHILE EYEBALLS SEE MORE OF A MILKY SUNSHINE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY BUDGE TODAY... AND
WILL THEN PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST AREAS THAT SAW SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE -20C 850MB ISOTHERM IS FORECAST TO BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...AS WINDS STAY UP IN THE 7-10 MPH RANGE.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RESULT...WITH WIDESPREAD
20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW READINGS. THEREFORE PLAN ON ISSUING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY MODERATE ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON /25 BELOW/ ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN...AND THEN DROP TO EVEN COLDER VALUES ON FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT /30 TO 35 BELOW/...SO A PROLONGED ADVISORY FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WAS WARRANTED THERE.
ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...WIND CHILLS WILL SNEAK ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER ABOUT 15Z ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FALL BELOW AGAIN AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LONGER BREAK BETWEEN PERIODS OF ADVISORY-
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TIME FRAMES WHEN THE MOST DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
EXIST.

SATURDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO ECLIPSE ZERO DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN...WHILE HIGHS ELSEWHERE RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM ZERO TO 15
BELOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND CHILL
READINGS FROM HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A THIRD NIGHT IN A
ROW.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAU CLAIRE THE FAVORED PATH
FOR THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.

CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY /CENTRAL MN ACROSS WI/...AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

PRECIPITATION HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH
PERIODS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MAINLY KAXN
AND KRWF WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL BE
MORE SPORADIC IN CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH VFR VSBY. THE ISSUE OF BLOWING/DRIFTING IS
MITIGATED BY MIDDAY THU WHEN THE STRONG W WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CEILINGS WHICH WILL PRIMARILY LINGER IN THE
MVFR RANGE...THOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF IFR HEIGHT ARE NOT
UNREASONABLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG THE DAY
TMRW...NOT SO MUCH LIFTING AS IT WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BEFORE
ONLY HIGH CIRRUS REMAINS TMRW NIGHT.

KMSP...WILL INITIALIZE WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WITH HEIGHTS ABOVE
1700 FT. AM EXPECTING CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT BUT CLOSE
TO SUNRISE...CEILINGS CLOSER TO 1500 FT MAY DEVELOP BUT CHANCES
ARE LOW. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT LATE...RESULTING IN VFR. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED THOUGH SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING REPORTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THRU DAYBREAK. STRONG GUSTY W WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDDAY THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
SAT...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KT.
SUN...MVFR CONDS LIKELY. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. CHC -SN. SE WIND 5-10
KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-
     091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ041>045.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC