Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 142334
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Little to no chance for precipitation over the next week.

- Cooling trend down to near normal to slightly below normal
  temperatures on Sunday and Monday with continued near normal
  to slightly above normal temperatures favored to return after
  that next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Today and Friday...Dry north to northeast winds kept us on the
dry side today with only a few hundredths to around a tenth
reported across south central Minnesota. As this large system
providing high impact weather well to our south moves out, high
pressure will move into the Upper Midwest for Friday. Without
much advection or change in the airmass expect similar
temperatures tomorrow.

Saturday through Monday... A surface low will track from central
Canada into the Great Lakes region over this period. This will
provide for some precipitation chances (very low chances) and
cooler temperatures. Most of the moisture and therefore
precipitation will remain closer to the surface low over
northern Minnesota. With a lack of moisture little to no
precipitation is expected despite a favorable position for the
jet streak over the Upper Midwest. More noticeable for us will
be the cooler temperatures and increased winds. As the low
passes by the pressure gradient will increase significantly
providing for widespread gusty winds. Not much spread within
the GEFS, GEPS, and ENS ensemble systems with gusts up around 40
mph likely on Saturday. On Saturday the dry cold front should
pass through and advect much colder air in. The temperatures
won`t be much below normal, but with the continued wind it will
not be a great day to be outside as wind chills forecast in the
5 to 15 range Sunday and Monday morning. As the pressure
gradient drops winds should come in quieter on Sunday and even
more so on Monday. Still gusty on Sunday, but probably more
gusts around 30 mph than 40 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday... On Tuesday the flow aloft switches and
we could see a return to warm air advection aloft. This brief
period of WAA could allow us to return to slightly above
normal. However there remains a lot of spread in how much WAA we
will see, so temperatures have quite a spread Tuesday and on
next week with high temperatures from down around freezing up
into the lower to mid 40s. So all around not as warm as we have
seen for much of March, but that would still be around to
slightly above normal if it were to happen. Normals do start to
increase quickly this time of year with average temperature
normals increasing by a degree every 2 to 3 days. On the
precipitation side still not a lot of hope. We have forcing,
but as moisture continues to look limited I have little hope for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions throughout for most TAF sites, but KAXN could see
some MVFR ceilings. Winds will be light overnight, taking on a
more westerly direction for Friday. Could see a few gusts near
20 kts during the afternoon, but these will decrease toward
sunset.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. There is a small chance for
MVFR clouds on Friday, but bases should be above 3000 ft. Winds
will diminish this evening and gradually take on a more
northwest and westerly direction for Friday. Afternoon gusts of
20 kts are possible, but these will taper off toward sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G35-40kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JRB


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