000
FXUS63 KMPX 152100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

IMPRESSIVE MCV MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HEADING
ACROSS WI TONIGHT. THIS MCV HAS HELPED CHECK UP THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO MN OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE DEWP GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH MID/UPPER 60S EAST...WITH DEWPS CRASHING
INTO THE 40S BACK IN WRN MN. MODEL THAT HAS HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY
BEST ALL DAY IS THE HRRR...AND CONTINUED TO FOLLOW IT TO WORK POPS
ACROSS THE MPX CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
SMALL...AS BEST H85 WINDS WILL BE STRETCHING FROM NRN MO UP TOWARD
SE WISCONSIN. STILL...AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...OCCASIONALLY ONE OF THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY PULSE UP TO
NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT NOTHING WORSE THAN THAT.

OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A
LITTLE MESO LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SOME RATHER CHAOTIC WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
THOSE INFLUENCES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
SETTLE BACK INTO THE WNW THIS EVENING.

COUPLE OF OTHER CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST WAS TO NUDGE LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW A LITTLE BIT BELOW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND
CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON DEWPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WITH
DEWPS THIS AFTERNOON FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S...AND SKIES CLEARING
OUT OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL SETUP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
15.18 5KM NAM FOR TONIGHT IS DROPPING SOME AREAS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
MN INTO THE UPPER 40S...AND GIVEN THE DRY AIR COMING IN...THIS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...THE MPX AREA WILL BE
IN A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO WHAT IS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SODAK
TODAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
70S...SO CUT BACK ON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SUNDAY.

AS FOR THE DEWPOINTS...LIKE TODAY...EXPECT MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
TO PROMOTE A GOOD DROP IN DEWPS. USED THE MIX DOWN TOOL WITH THE NAM
TO H85 TO TAKE A GOOD CHUNK OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS...THOUGH LOOKING AT
THE WIDESPREAD DEWPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...MAY NEED TO CUT
THOSE BACK EVEN MORE. BESIDE THE DRY AIR...THIS MIXING WILL ALSO
BRING WITH IT SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MN.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR EXPECTED...CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS/SREF SHOW A WAVE COMING ACROSS
SODAK TOMORROW WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN WORKING INTO SW MN.
ACROSS NRN MN...THE NMM AND SPC WRFS SHOW ISO/SCT STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WORK DOWN INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 21Z. AS
STATED BEFORE THOUGH...GIVEN DRY AIR...FAVOR THE DRY CONDITIONS
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND GEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
SECOND IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDING IN FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FA ON
MONDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BEING PARALLEL. THIS RESULTS IN SHOWER
CHANCES REMAINING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH IF I-94. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BEGINS TO EXPAND OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE HIGH SHOULD STAY WITH US THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD LOWER INTO THE 40S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES
FOR TUESDAY WITH AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON WEST AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
40S FROM CAMBRIDGE OVER TO LADYSMITH. AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A WARMING TREND WILL
THEN COMMENCE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S COMMON FOR HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT HIGHS NEAR 90 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS MORE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...
WHICH IS WHERE THE FORECAST STANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT
MAKES IT INTO MN ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STORMY PERIOD MAY RESULT FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS IS ALREADY SHOWING PW
VALUES IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN AT THE 99TH
PERCENTILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE FAIRMONT AREA...WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STARTING TO INCREASE AS LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE REGION. PER
THE RAP...EXPECT THE UPPER WAVE TO TRACK TO RST OVER TO SOUTH OF
EAU. MOST WIDESPREAD TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FIELDS...THOUGH SCT-BKN SHRA/TSRA STILL EXPECTED FROM
MSP EAST...AS SHOWN IN THE 15Z RUN OF THE HRRR. DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
NEAR RWF/STC AT 18Z...AND LOW TEMP/DEWP SPREADS TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM ERN MN INTO
WRN WI. STILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF THE MPX TERMINALS
BY 00Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SUNDAY...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS EXPECTED AS A RESULT BY THE END
OF THE TAFS.

KMSP...STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS ERN MN STARTS
GETTING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE DOWN TOWARD MKT.
WILL HAVE THUNDER IN THE AREA THRU ABOUT 22Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY DRY OUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP AROUND 00Z...BUT BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE UP IN NRN MN FOR SOME ISO THUNDER BEFORE 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AND TSRA MAINLY IN MORNING. NW WINDS 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. LGT AND VRB WINDS.
WED...VFR. S WINDS 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG