Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KMPX 191937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
237 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Short term concerns are cloud and temperature trends...and remaining
threat of an isolated shower/thunder to the east early.

Lower clouds developed ahead of trough/moist axis and remained
stationary long enough to halt temperature rise to the east. The
southwest cwa warmed nicely in only filtered sunshine with high
clouds. Expect this cloud mass to drift east this evening and move
out/dissipate before 03z. Still have low threat of a shower/isold
thunder as it moves east. Temperatures should cool off too much
overnight...with more mid/thicker high clouds to move in and linger
into Monday as the upper jet moves across the region.  Expect some
thinning of clouds from north to south during the day Monday...but
the far south may be under the thicker clouds most of the day. This
will limit temperatures along with caa pattern developing early.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The long term looks to get a bit more busier over the latter half
of the week as we see a system move northeast from the southern
Rockies toward the lower Great Lakes. In the big picture, a brief
flirtation with northwest flow at the start of the period will
give way to shortwave ridging by midweek. After that we`ll have
split flow across the western/central CONUS with a southern stream
wave helping to develop a surface low in the lee of the southern
Rockies which will move northeast Thursday into Saturday. The
deterministic guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and MPAS
follow a similar path with respect to the main features and
evolution described above. However, as would be expected there are
differences in timing and intensity of features, and the resultant
sensible weather in our area. The GFS has come around to a weaker
and more southern solution for later in the week, more consistent
with what the ECMWF and MPAS have been showing. The Canadian has
been waffling some, but is also now in that camp. With everything
pointing toward split flow and a southern wave driving the surface
low, rain looks to be the primary precipitation type across the
area when the bulk of the precipitation occurs Thursday night and
Friday, although some snow is likely to occur near the start and
end of things, particularly across the north. The ensembles
suggest a similar story, with the GEFS probability of 850 mb
temperatures greater than 0C running greater than 90% for most of
the area from Thursday evening through Friday evening, and it`s
probability that p-type is rain showing the same. Things do look
to dry out over the weekend as a weak surface ridge briefly builds
in before we start to get into good return flow by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Southerly flow ahead of next cold front progged to move east to
west this afternoon/tonight. Gusty se-s south winds ahead will
relax from west to east this afternoon as the front approaches.
Some cumulus/statocu developed in deeper moisture over east
central MN late this morning and this will shift east into
Wisconsin for the afternoon. Models still develop some instability
ahead of the deeper moisture will mention
vcsh at KEAU later this afternoon. This axis shifts east and south
through 00z. High pressure will nose in behind the front shifting
winds more nw-n. Some mid level moisture travels from the Dakotas
into southern MN overnight and Monday as upper jet axis shifts
off to the east.

KMSP...VFR conditions to prevail throughout the period. Mix of 5k
to 10k foot clouds this afternoon...and more mid/high level clouds
tonight into Monday. Gusty southerly winds ahead of front this
afternoon...should relax by evening...and fropa around 06z-07z
with winds becoming nw-n into Monday.

Tue...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kt.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in -RA/-SN late. Wind SE 5-10
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in -SN early and -RA late. Wind
SSE 10 kt.




AVIATION...DWE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.