Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE PERIOD.

MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA.  THIS IS FOCUSED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MADISON AND
APPLETON TO NEAR ST CLOUD.  PERHAPS AN INCH INDICATED BY ST CLOUD
WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OUT TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
JET STREAK INDUCED FORCING RIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET AXIS LIFTS OFF. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.  WITH STRONG FORCING...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA DURING THE
DAY.

THEN FORCING REFOCUSES DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
NOSES NORTHEAST INTO IOWA FOCUSING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT.  SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AS ICE IS NOT INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND A NORTHERN STREAM CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST...WHILE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDES THE SUPPORT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STILL LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT UPPER FORCING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING ARRIVES AS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD TURN ANY
MIXY PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOUTHERN MN AND WI
APPEARING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE
COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE FLOW PATTERN
LOCALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS QUEBEC...COLD HIGH PRESSURE INFILTRATES THE
NORTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE MONDAY...H85 TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -20C...WHICH INDICATES HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

IFR CIGS/LOW END MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA. VFR
DID MATERIALIZE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SNOW FILLS IN OVER THE WEST INTO CENTRAL...AFFECTING
MAINLY KSTC AND JUST NORTH OF KMSP THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...THE
SNOW MAY WORK FARTHER SOUTH. THE 06Z MODEL TRENDED A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SNOW BAND DURING THE DAY. THIS WORKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO IFR...MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOW IS TOO SMALL TO ADD AT THIS
TIME. SW-S WINDS BECOMING N-NW WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

KMSP...LOW END MVFR CIGS REMAIN THIS MORNING. THE 06Z MODELS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW BAND. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS BUT INCLUDED PROB30 AFTER 21Z FOR NOW. THEN CIGS
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WITH CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT. S-SW WINDS BECOMING N WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





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