Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 161151 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

SNOW IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO WISCONSIN. VERY COLD AIR CAN BE FOUND OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE ABOUT THE WHOLE STATE IS BELOW ZERO...AND IN SOME
CASES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO. THIS WEDGE OF CLEARING WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAY OCCUR AFTER DAWN
IN WISCONSIN. ACCOMPANYING THE CLEARING IS A BUBBLE OF COLDER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL SWING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DESPITE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY.

ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLEARING IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG CAA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...AND AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. DURING THAT TIME...WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE BEGINNING OVER WC MN TONIGHT AND EXPANDING SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY. SOME GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH APPEAR PROBABLE IN SUCH A SET UP.
WITH THE LIGHT SNOW THAT JUST FELL...THINK THERE WILL BE BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE MN RIVER. HARD TO SAY
IF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE GIVEN A RELATIVELY THIN
SNOWPACK IN MANY OF THESE AREAS...HOWEVER IT IS NEW AND MORE APT TO
BLOW. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO SEE 45-50KT WINDS TOWARD THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL BE LACKING. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO POST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE WIND/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND THE
CONTINUATION OF THE COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LONG AWAITED PATTERN
CHANGE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MODERATION IN THE COLD
REGIME EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT EXITS THE AREA LEAVING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
SOUTH AND EAST AND WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS
FORECAST WILL GENERATE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW. BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW WIND GUST POTENTIAL
OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN DEVELOPING
MONDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL EXTEND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR
MONDAY FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY FOR GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE ADVISORY LATER WITH
THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE TEENS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE AGAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SOME INDICATION OF A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS TRANSITIONING TO A LESS AMPLIFIED ONE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW MORE MODIFIED PACIFIC TYPE AIR TO MOVE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN MAY
STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MODERATION IN THE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

MID/LOW LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CAN BE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE AND GUST NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MUCH AT OBSERVING LOCATIONS.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS ARE FINALLY PUSHING EAST AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES
IN. VERY LITTLE WARMING DUE TO SNOW COVER AND POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL PREVENT MUCH CU FROM
FORMING...IF ANY AT ALL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL SEE A RETURN
TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH STRONG CAA AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A MOISTENING LAYER ABOVE FL020.
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30 KT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...SLIGHT CHC -SN WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15-20G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15G20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ067-
     074>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






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