Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 170911
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for elevated fire weather conditions through early
  next week due to winds and low RH values.

- Breezy northwest winds with sporadic gusts up to 35mph today.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Current observations reveal chilly temperatures in the low to mid
20s and wind chills in the single digits and teens. Radar highlights
a few areas of flurries & snow showers moving across central &
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. These
flurries/snow showers will stick around through the first half of
Sunday as the stratus layer remains comfortably in the DGZ before
tapering off this afternoon. Any travel impacts should be marginal
as little to no accumulation is expected today. It`s one of the few
times it actually feels like Winter this season but it only took
until mid-March. Northwest winds are expected to be slightly weaker
today with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with sporadic gusts up to
35 mph. Wind chill temperatures remain brisk, in the 20s, and high
temperatures top out in the low 30s this afternoon. Today`s a great
candidate to stay inside if you`re able to. Winds begin to decrease
overnight into Monday as the sfc low exits into the eastern Great
Lakes. Fire weather concerns remain elevated due to the dry fuels
and low RH values, but they will remain out of Red Flag Warning
territory. Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph lighter and our min
RH values bottom out in the 35 to 40% range due to the colder
temperatures this afternoon versus yesterday.

The upper level pattern upstream remains similar to yesterday
morning with an impressive 500mb ridge across the PAC NW and a
closed 500mb low in the desert SW. Looking downstream there is
troughing digging into the eastern CONUS which should persist
through the upcoming week. Guidance continue in reasonably good
agreement for the majority of the week ahead. The broad ridging
across the western NOAM will position us in northwest flow to start
the week. This will keep the below normal air with us through the
early part of the week. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 30s
with northwest winds finally relenting. Tuesday will be the outlier
for the forecast period. A quick moving system will move through the
northern Great Lakes bringing southwestern flow & WAA over MN and
WI. Highs will range in the mid 40s to low 50s with gusty southwest
winds making it another day with fire weather concerns. We`ll see
elevated fire weather conditions with minRH values in the mid 20%
range and near wind advisory criteria gusts through Tuesday
afternoon. We`ll snap back to colder than normal temperatures
Wednesday into next weekend on the back side of this system as
northwest flow aloft will look to reestablish itself.

Our attention turns to Thursday and our next chance for
precipitation. It`s important to note that there remains a
significant amount of uncertainty in timing and placement of several
upper-level features that will impact where the precipitation falls
Thursday afternoon. Confidence is beginning to increase as guidance
is in reasonable agreement for a shortwave ejecting out of the
northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Thursday. Low level
WAA will ramp up ahead of the shortwave across the Dakotas and
Minnesota. This will cause the 850mb temperature gradient to tighten
as the northern air mass has temps -15 to -20C along the
international border and over the Great Lakes region. The mild air
advecting northward will push 0 to +5C air into extreme southern
South Dakota and northern Iowa. The result is a tight 850mb
temperature gradient to our southwest across central South Dakota
and southwest Minnesota. The 700mb gradient is placed off to the
northeast across western and southern Minnesota. We`ll likely see a
broad area of light precipitation develop across the region thanks
to favorable isentropic upglide in the "warm" sector. There will
likely be a band of heavier precipitation embedded within the broad
lighter precipitation where the narrow region of low level FGEN with
a narrow area low level FGEN enhances forcing ahead of approaching
shortwave. The GFS remains the most bullish with a band of 0.25" to
0.50" QPF across portions of central and southern Minnesota while
the ECMWF has a band of 0.10" to 0.25" from western to southern
Minnesota. NBM PoPs reflect the reasonable agreement in guidance and
have trended into the 50 to 70% range for Thursday afternoon. You
may have piece things together already but the thermal profile will
support all snow precipitation type as this precipitation is
falling. There is enough uncertainty on where this Goldilocks zone
sets up Thursday with some guidance placing the area of snow to our
north across northern Minnesota and some placing it across SW MN
through northern Iowa. This uncertainty is justified as timing of
any one feature could cause a notable shift in where the
precipitation falls. This system will have the potential to produce
an band of accumulating snow across the region.

Following this system, we`ll see a more active period of weather
through weekend. Ensemble guidance is advertising a deep trough
digging into the West Coast next weekend, with the potential for a
more significant system to develop Lee of the Rockies. This system
will likely track through the central Plains but where it tracks
after is highly variable at this time. Some models keep it south of
the area placing us in the cold sector while others track it through
the Dakotas placing us in the warm sector. The important thing to
take away is that there is a strong signal for a system in the March
23rd to 25th time frame for the Upper Midwest. The large amount of
variability will persist, but a more active pattern should settle in
for the 2nd half of March. Any precipitation, rain or snow, would be
greatly beneficial for the region as drought conditions continue to
worsen. &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Most should see VFR conditions throughout the period. Stratus
cloud bases will flirt with 3000 ft across central Minnesota,
but could have it drop down to MVFR levels at times Sunday
morning at KAXN, KSTC, and KRNH. Otherwise, winds remain gusty
through Sunday evening before decreasing Sunday night.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with steady northwest winds at
15G25kts overnight and through Sunday. Winds will start to
decrease around Sunday evening. Expect a broken stratus deck but
bases should be above 3000 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The fire weather threat for Sunday will be less than it was on
Saturday.

Saturday was a windy and dry day, with most locations
having RH values bottom out near 30 percent, and wind gusts
near 35 to 45 mph. On Sunday, winds will be a bit less, with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph, and humidity will be a bit higher, with
values of 30 to 40 percent.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH
FIRE WEATHER...JRB


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