Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 050844
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER
NE/KS...AND ANOTHER AREA OF CIRRUS SPREADING INTO NORTHWESTERN MN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE WORKING
EASTWARD TODAY.  ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FROM MONTANA IS THE FEATURE THAT COULD POSSIBLY
PRODUCE PRECIP BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN.
BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WE`LL FIRST NEED TO WORK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH THE AREA.  THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF LOOKS TO STAY SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH...AND THE HI-RES CAMS ALONG WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...FADE AWAY TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT STAYING CLOSER TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  STILL..WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ANTICIPATED ALONG THIS WAVE LATE TONIGHT...WE MAY STILL GET ENOUGH
BROAD LIFT TO SATURATE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SO...COMPLETELY REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80...AND WE`LL SEE THE CIRRUS
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON.  WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND DEW
POINTS ON THE RISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH GENERALLY 60-65 DEGREES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
MINNESOTA...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

RELATIVELY STRONG WAA WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER ERN NEB/SERN SD/SWRN MN MAY KEEP
THIS ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON...A PLUME
OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIFT INTO SWRN MN WHILE THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN MN. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SOUTH OF I-94. CAMS...PARTICULARLY THE WRF-ARW...ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO FORM NEAR THE SD/MN LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATING EAST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD
BRING SOME CHANCE OF QLCS TORNADOES AS WELL. THE SEVERE THREAT
PROBABLY WON/T LAST TOO LONG INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
STABILITY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING RAINFALL TOTALS TO NEAR 3/4 INCH JUST ABOUT AREA WIDE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A POTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD AND RETROGRADE
WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...A
ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CAPABLE OF
BRINGING MORE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY THIS
WEEKEND. MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA...MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTH TOMORROW...BUT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH NO ADDITIONAL OPERATIONALLY
RELEVANT CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT
SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING
SOUTH 5 TO 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD


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