Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231245
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
645 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
FOSTER AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94 THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT/S BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
UNTIL THEN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE
MINIMIZING THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE AIR IN RELATION TO THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 25 MPH AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS HAVE DIMINISHED
A BIT GIVEN THE AFFECTS THE ANTECEDENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD THAN
NORMAL CONDS CONTINUING WITH SMALL CHC/S OF SNOW.

OVERALL...THE MEAN UPPER FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N/NW THIS WEEK.
THE 5-DAY 50H MEAN /GFS/GEM/EC/ IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
PARKED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY THRU THIS WEEK. THE BIGGEST CHG IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEK
OF DECEMBER 1ST. TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...WITH
SOME MODIFICATIONS NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WHERE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW/SC MN MONDAY WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING
EXPECTED. PLUS WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS HAS ALLOWED A
CREST TO FORM ON THE SNOW COVER...LIMITING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.

FOR PRECIPITATION RELATED CHGS NEXT WEEK...A FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WED. THERE
REMAINS A FAIRLY STRONG JET STREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED...SO HEAVIER
SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR WEDNESDAY BASED ON
THE STRONGER JET STREAK AND SFC LOW LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS /AND LOWEST CIGS AND VSYS/
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MN SITES. A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVE...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
REAS OF DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER WI SITES/PRIMARILY KEAU/ WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET...WITH KMSP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW/PRECIP.

KMSP...
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-6SM WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING. TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CIGS...IF ANYTHING
EXPECT THE TAF IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN GOING TO VFR BY 14Z. FROPA
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
21Z...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S DEVELOPING THIS EVE AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY...WITH SUB-1800 FT CIGS RETURING.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/IFR CIGS CHC -SN. WINDS NW 20G30 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN. WINDS NW 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-
     053.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-023-025-
     027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





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