Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 300408
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1008 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE
SFC PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESP OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN -TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP
WILL HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC


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