Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 212309
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
Issued by National Weather Service NORTH PLATTE NE
409 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 123 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Surface high pressure will continue to shift east tonight, with
south winds across most of the area on the backside of the high.
At H850mb a decent low level jet develops near 30 kt across south
central South Dakota, and local surface wind gusts to 25 mph will
be possible tonight in the typical windier spots like around
Winner. Better mixing will keep lows warmer tonight and no wind
chill issues are anticipated.

Otherwise the next weather system will be heading northeast
toward the area. As lift develops and the column saturates, light
snow should develop across south central South Dakota after day
break Thursday. Models suggest any heavier snow should remain
generally to the east within area of stronger mid level FGEN and
negative EPV. Thinking is that 1 to 3 inches will accumulate by
Thursday afternoon along and east of a line from Philip to Martin.
Winds with this event will be light, generally less than 10 kts,
so no blowing and drifting. No headlines will be issued with this
package due to the relatively light amount of snow and no
blowing/drifting.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

An active weather pattern will continue the next several days. A
potent system will dig southeast through the Rockies and then east
across the central portions of the country Friday into the first
half of the weekend. H700mb upper low will be centered across
northeast Colorado Saturday morning, moving quickly northeast
toward Minnesota by Saturday night. This track will be far enough
southeast that it should only brush a portion of the area, with
around an inch or so of snow possible around Winner and the
southeast portion of the area. Will keep an eye on the system, as
any shift to the northwest would mean heavier snow for the
southern portion of the area.

A slow warming trend will then develop the first of next week as
the flow aloft becomes more westerly. Highs could top 40 degrees
across portions of the area Monday and Tuesday. Then by mid week
the next long wave trough begins to approach from the west, with
another chance for snow and colder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 409 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with MVFR ceilings
expected to develop northeast of the Black Hills. As a weather
system moves across the region on Thursday, VFR ceilings will
lower to MVFR ceilings southeast of the Black hills during the
afternoon. This will include areas from Phillip through Pine
Ridge, possibly reaching the KRAP terminal by 23z. Winds will
remain light at less than 10 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg



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