Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 020848
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA INTO
WESTERN DAKOTAS. INITIAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND A CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT...BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL...WHICH COULD BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME AND RESULT IN NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIP. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW STRATUS/FOG
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY ALSO BE SOME
MVFR VSBYS FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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