Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 262040
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH UTAH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE TOPPING THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF/BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...THROUGH FAR SW SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WEST OF THE TROF...WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. TO THE EAST OF THE TROF...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM AROUND 80 IN FAITH...TO THE UPPER
90S IN PINE RIDGE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH
WYOMING THIS EVENING AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE LOW IN WYOMING SHIFTS EAST INTO SW SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH
INCREASING FORCING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD...IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY...700MB LOW CLOSES OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
WESTERN SD WITH COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOW DEEPENS THURSDAY EVENING AS IT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP WITH MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA DRYING OUT AND PRECIP CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL PERSIST OVER THE PAC NW WITH AN
ANCHORED CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT WARM
CONDS WITH PERIODIC SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF DEFINITIVE
WAVE TIMING AT THIS TIME FRAME SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS
THE FA. DID RETAIN POPS OVER NE WY AND THE BH SUN-MON GIVEN A
CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR LOW POPS. OTHERWISE...SW FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT LEE SIDE TOUGHING WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. H85 TEMPS
PROGGED AT NEAR 30C WILL SUPPORT 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS...ESP WHEN
ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SHIFT THE LEE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING LL SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...NO SIG
SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ISOLD-
SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVNG...WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCT TSRA
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CELLS. LEFT TSRA OUT OF KRAP TAF GIVEN LOW PROBS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC


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