Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 282324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SURFACE...DEEPENING LOW IS OVER ERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING NEWD
THROUGH SCNTRL SD. WDSPRD LOW STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NERN WY
TO THE LOWER 80S IN SCNTRL SD.

TONIGHT...LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SPREAD
WDSPRD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH BEST
CHANCES ARRIVING AFT MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY
LATE AFTN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PCPN AT TIMES DURING AS
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NE...BUT WDSPRD PCPN THEN
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO FAR SWRN SD BY TUE MRNG. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STRONG TO SVR TSTM ACROSS FAR SRN SD MON AFTN ALONG AND HEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SOME MODEST CAPE/SHEAR WILL EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... A
DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER THE SD/WY BORDER. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO FAR SRN CANADA BY 12Z WED. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY TUESDAY EVNG...WITH SOME AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE BLKHLS. CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST WED THRU FRI...WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. COOLER TEMPS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH SHSN POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS FRI MRNG. MODELS KEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
NERN WY THRU FAR WRN SD...AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...ESP AT KRAP WHERE MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ESP OVER NE WY WHERE
SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY AT KRAP AND THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS GIVEN
CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN DAKOTA. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
THREAT...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON






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