000
FXUS63 KUNR 102008
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
208 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
203 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

-Windy conds this afternoon with winds slowly tapering off
 overnight

-Warming trend tomorrow through Saturday, with very mild weather
 this coming weekend (highs in the 70s/80s)

-Next chances for precipitation are Sunday night into Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Compact fast moving upper trough continues to push through the
region this afternoon. Cold pool aloft may support a few isolated
showers into the early evening. Otherwise, things will begin to
dry out as a massive ridge of high pressure shifts east. Mean
ridging expected through the weekend with a sharp warming trend
ensuing Thur. Dry weather can expected through most of the weekend
with the warmest day being Sat when widespread 70s and 80s are
expected for highs. A few locations in scentral SD may even reach
90 as some ensembles are indicating. Upper ridge will begin to
break down early next week as deep upper trough pushes into the
western CONUS. This will result in a deep sfc cyclone somewhere in
the mid CONUS, the path of which is still undermined. Current
mean ensemble and deterministic solutions are suggesting the bulk
of precip may stay south of the region. However, that could very
well change by the time flow details are worked out. If the track
does shift north, a good chance of heavy rain and some high
elevation snow would be possible. One thing that is for certain
is that much cooler weather will return to the region by mid next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1140 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period for most
places. The exception is for where scattered rain/snow showers
occur that could create local MVFR/IFR conditions. Strong
northwesterly winds will continue this afternoon, especially
across the western SD plains where gusts over 40 knots have been
observed. Winds and the showers will diminish early this evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-072-073-077-
     078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13