Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 122031
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION...SUPPORTING A SFC
TROUGH THROUGH THE FA SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY MOISTURE
STARVED...HENCE NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WEAK CAA WILL DEVELOP SAT
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS...AND BREEZY NW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SD PLAINS.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH LEE
SIDE TROUGHING SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FA.
STAUNCH PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A LLJ ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH PERIODIC MIX DOWN EXPECTED IN FAVORED TERRAIN ENHANCED
LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE NORTHERN BH FOOTHILLS AND MUCH OF NE WY.
LINGERING COLD AND DRY THERMAL FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM TERRAIN INFLUENCES OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. THIS WILL ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. NO HEADLINED NEED FOR FROST
GIVEN THAT MOST LOCATIONS WHERE FROST IS EXPECTED ALREADY EXPERIENCE
A HARD FREEZE LAST NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP IN FAVORED NOCTURNAL
MIX DOWN AREAS. MID LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE WILL SUPPORT A MID CLOUD OR
CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUDS UP FOR THIS.

SAT...UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND INCREASING. PRESSURE RISE/CAA
COUPLET WILL TIME AT PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS...ESP NW AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...PASSING CIRRUS MAY SUPPORT A THIN OVERCAST AT
TIMES...ESP NORTHERN AREAS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL TIME AT PEAK HEATING
OVER THE SE HALF. HENCE HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS A
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






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