Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241715

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1115 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Issued at 943 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Have updated the forecast to lower PoPs by 10-30 percent through
early afternoon as a minimum in shower activity is expected today,
before the next wave moves through tonight.


.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Water vapor shows upper trof across the Rockies with low spinning
over Utah. Widespread showers currently east of the Black Hills
with showers/drizzle across northeast Wyoming and western South
Dakota. Temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in the higher
elevations of the Black Hills may support some snow, but any
accumulations are light. Weak shortwave ejects from the upper
trof today. Heaviest precipitation shifts east of the forecast
area as frontal boundary remains along the MN/SD border into
western Kansas. However, light showers/drizzle will be fairly
widespread much of the day. Temperatures similar to yesterday.
Upper low over Utah weakens and moves into Wyoming on Monday, with
scattered showers across the area. May be some light snow in the
Black Hills tonight, with minor accumulation possible above 6500
ft MSL.

Upper trof moves east of the are on Tuesday, with drier northwest
flow across the northern plains. Temperatures will warm to near
average for the last half of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1110 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A few areas of MVFR conditions will exist this afternoon,
otherwise expect widespread IFR conditions through the forecast
period. After 00Z, local LIFR conditions in areas of fog and
-SHRA are possible, particularly across northeastern Wyoming and
 the Black Hills area.




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