Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
352 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND SNOW BANDS LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SKIES MAY START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LATE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL
PROBABLY ARRIVE IN ALL BUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS PROBABLY
SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE
OFFING EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY DEAMPLIFIES
AND BECOMES SPLIT OVER NORTH AMERICA.  AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MOSTLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES.  ITS DIFFICULT TO BUY INTO PHASING THIS FAR
OUT...SO WILL TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE DUE TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP AT
LEAST BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD CREATE MORE BREAKS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST UP TO 750MB SO SHOULD
SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY WITHIN ANY CLOUDS.  AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND WILL
BEGIN A DRY FORECAST STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THOUGH 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN FRIGID...LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES LOOK TOO
WESTERLY FOR MUCH OF A LAKE EFFECT IMPACT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS TO
FINALLY SUBSIDE.  LOW TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY OVER THE SNOW
PACKED AREAS AND WILL GO WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY.  RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP...THEREBY STARTING THE MODERATION OF
TEMPS.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVING MAINLY OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS HAVE A FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOK.  LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN TEMPS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND THEN REINFORCED BY NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE.  WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BECOME COLDER ON
MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP RETURNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

CLDS HAVE DECREASED ACRS THE AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF
CLDS TO MV ACRS THE RGN OVERNIGHT IN COLD DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES AS WELL. THE ONLY SIG WX WL BE IN THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SNOWBELT...N OF THE TAF SITES. CLDS WL INCR A BIT AGAIN
TOMORROW...THOUGH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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