Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 220828
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTED EAST...CAUSING SHOWERS TO END OVER
EASTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAD MOVED
THROUGH THE FCST AREA...AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING INTO
THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LOW CLOUDS STILL COVERED MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXTENDED AS FAR NW AS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN SATL AND MODEL TRENDS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING TREND
BY A FEW HOURS TODAY. CLEARING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. VERY DRY AIR WILL SETTLE
INTO NORTHERN WI...WITH DEW POINTS CRASHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S.

EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH
OVER NE WI...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE LOWERED
MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NORTHERN WI.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP. THE RESULTING WAA SHOULD BOOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

EXPECT COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW AND 500MB LOW FROM THE
PLAINS...WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE ENTIRE
AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
29.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BUT THEY ALL KEEP SOME QPF IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS KEPT TUESDAY DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING ALONG A COLD FRONT EARLY OVERNIGHT.  COULD
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE ROUGHLY FROM 08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEPART DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC



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