Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 190355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CONUS. WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TO BRING SHORT WAVE INTO NORTHERN WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING FEATURE TO BE RATHER POTENT...THOUGH
MODELS INSIST THAT THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
LAKES. WAA AND WEAK FGEN AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE LEADING TO MODELS
SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF OVER MUCH OF CWA SAT AFTN. SOME QUESTION AS
TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE SURFACED BASED.
MOISTURE ALSO QUESTIONABLE...AS MODELS APPEAR TOO WET AT
INITIALIZATION. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST CWA
WHERE WILL HAVE SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM RRQ OF JETLET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS HAVE NOT MIXED
OUT AS YESTERDAY...WITH HAZE CURRENTLY ON LAKE EITHER FROM FOG OR
SMOKE. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN UPPER 50S...WILL CARRY FOG ON LAKE. CU
FORMED QUICKLY INLAND LATE THIS MORNING...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SHOWER FORMING REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING LAKE/BAY BREEZE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS SPREADS
EAST INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AT OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY EVENING. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST MODEL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT TO PINPOINT WHEN OR WHERE. ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

IF THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN
WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WILL
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES]
THE WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT DIFFERENT LEVELS ABOVE 4000 FT. THERE IS A LAYER
OF ELEVATED SMOKE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN FLIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM





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