Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 151142
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

ASIDE FROM A SMALL AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER EAST CENTRAL WI...SKIES
HAD CLEARED ACROSS GRB CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BLO ZERO WERE REPORTED OVER THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI...WITH TEENS IN THE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER SOUTHERN MN...WITH STEADY LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RRQ
OF A 90 KT JET STREAK AND A STRONG S/W TROF APPROACHING FROM NW
WYOMING.

EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...WITH LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE RRQ OF THE JET ARRIVES. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET AND A STRONG S/W TROF
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...
WITH 700-750 MB MIXING RATIOS ONLY AROUND 1.0-1.5 G/KG. MODEST
QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH AND SNOWFALL TO WATER RATIOS
AROUND 15:1 DURING THE EVENT YIELD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR
NORTH...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WI...THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL
OCCUR AT NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO DON`T THINK THAT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL PULL OUT OF FAR NE WI SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME AS FAR AS THE LOCKED-IN MEAN FLOW ACROSS
NOAM WITH THE WRN UPR RDG/ERN UPR TROF COUPLET HOLDING FIRM THRU
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MDLS DO SHOW THE RDG
BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT TEMPS WL
BEGIN TO MODERATE NEXT WEEKEND (THO STILL BELOW NORMAL). UNTIL
THEN...FRIGID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER NE WI WITH THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR TAKING PLACE MON/TUE. MAIN PCPN CHCS TO BE MORE
TIED TO LAKE EFFECT OVER N-CNTRL WI RATHER THAN ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM AS THE MAIN JET TO RESIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS DURING
THIS COLD SNAP TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

THE BREAK IN THE SNOW CHCS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR TO FLOW INTO WI BEHIND A CDFNT AND TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF SUNDAY NGT. EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE
NEGLIGIBLE SINCE THERE IS NO GULF MOISTURE IN THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONSET OF STRONG CAA WL BE REALIZED BY DAYBREAK AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -16C AND W-NW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE N-CNTRL WI...TO THE MID TEENS NEAR LAKE MI.

THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF WL ROTATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON MON...BRINGING A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW TO NE WI. WHILE THERE WL BE
A CONTINUED CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THE MAIN
FOCUS TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACROSS NRN WI...ESPECIALLY
VILAS CNTY. WINDS WL VEER TO THE NW MAKING TRAJS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...DELTA-T VALUES CLIMB INTO THE LWR 20S...DEEP MOISTURE
IS EVIDENT ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND NO SIGNS OF ANY LOW-LEVEL
INVERSIONS ALL POINT TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR A
HEADLINE FOR VILAS CNTY STARTING MON (INTO MON NGT) IS LOOKING
BETTER ALL THE TIME AND WL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW SHWRS...GUSTY NW WINDS MAY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO
THE AREA WITH AN OCCASIONAL REDUCTION IN VSBY AND SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS TO ONLY BE IN THE TEENS/LWR 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO CONT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI THRU MOST OF MON
NGT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO
BACK MORE W-NW AFTER MIDNGT AND TEND TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. BY DAYBREAK...PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
MAY HAVE RECEIVED A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST AREA MAY JUST SEE SOME PASSING FLURRIES UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 ABOVE NEAR THE BAY
AND LAKE MI. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE SHOULD FINALLY TURN OFF FOR
N-CNTRL WI ON TUE AS A WEAK SFC RDG MOVES INTO WI. THIS RDG SHOULD
AT LEAST BRING SOME MIXED SUNSHINE TO THE AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY
WEST WINDS WL NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL WARMING. MAX TEMPS TUE WL AGAIN
ONLY BE IN THE TEENS/LWR 20S WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

SNOW CHCS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST FOR LATE TUE NGT INTO
WED AS YET ANOTHER CDFNT (TUE NGT)/SHORTWAVE TROF (WED) QUICKLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM NOT NEARLY AS POTENT AS ITS
PREDECESSOR...NONETHELESS A CYCLONIC FLOW THRU WED WL KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE FCST WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WL HAVE TO WATCH THE WIND DIRECTION ON WED...BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING LAKE EFFECT INTO
N-CNTRL WI. NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS THRU WED NGT AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION A MINIMAL POP FOR VILAS CNTY. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND CHILLY NGT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WITH ANOTHER NGT OF TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. HI
PRES IS THEN FCST TO BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

BY NEXT FRI...MDLS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG MAY
FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
THRU FRI AND WE WL BE WATCHING THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVE SE THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES MOVING SE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THU NGT/FRI DRY. THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO AHVE STARTED RETREATING NORTH BY FRI WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LWR 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH (STILL AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WI BY MID-EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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