Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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361
FXUS63 KGRB 122057
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND A STEADY 10 MPH WIND WILL
CREATE WINDS CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF
SNOW IN VILAS COUNTY.

SATURDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO IT MAY NOT FEEL AS
COLD AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TANK. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND
AND WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT SHOW THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL ARRIVE A
LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE TO 850MB TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES OF 16C TO
19C NOTED TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE AN ORGANIZED LAKE BAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WOULD MOVE
NORTH AND CLIP AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS SCENARIO. MAIN SYSTEM SNOW WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN). TOTALS MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MILD CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CIGS GENERALLY NORTH OF A GREEN BAY TO WAUSAU
LINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO A MILE OR LESS IN SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ012-013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM



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