


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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340 FXUS63 KGRB 031149 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued potential for showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Friday (July 4th), and Saturday through Sunday. The greatest chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur Saturday and Saturday night. A low-end (Marginal) severe threat exists through the period, and there is potential for heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday night. - Temperatures will be above normal through the holiday weekend, with very warm and humid conditions expected Friday (July 4th) and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A weak boundary was sagging south across the forecast area early this morning. Along and north of the boundary, partly to mostly cloudy skies were observed, along with isolated showers. Wherever clearing had occurred, patchy fog was developing. Thunderstorm Chances through the Holiday Weekend: The weak front is expected to shift southwest of the forecast area this morning, stall out through the evening, then lift northeast as a warm front late tonight into Friday. After a general lull in showers and thunderstorms (slight chance within the area of higher instability in C WI) through this evening, elevated storms are expected to increase as the warm front pushes northeast. SPC HREF shows the best concentration of 40+ dBZ paintballs occurring across the forecast area late tonight through noon Friday. Marginal instability and weak shear (around 20 kts) does not bode well for organized severe weather, but a couple strong storms with small hail cannot be ruled out. The convection should start to wane during the afternoon as an upper level ridge builds over the region and the warm front lifts northeast. Generally dry conditions are expected for the Friday evening fireworks displays. Models have trended a little slower with the weekend cold frontal passage, with dry conditions prevailing through the overnight Friday night, and widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting the forecast area Saturday into Saturday night. CAPE building to 1-2K j/kg and modest deep layer shear of 20-30 kts point to a marginal severe risk Saturday afternoon and evening. PWATs increasing to 2-2.25 inches (200 percent of normal) supports a threat of heavy rainfall and localized urban flooding. The slower frontal movement leads to a continued chance of showers and storms into Sunday, especially over the southeast CWA. Drier conditions are expected for at least the early part of the next work week, as high pressure and much drier air arrives in the wake of the front. Temperatures: Above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, followed by near to a little below normal conditions through the middle of next week. Very warm and muggy conditions arrive for Friday (July 4th) and linger over eastern WI into Saturday, with heat indices into the lower to middle 90s. The heat and humidity will impact outdoor activities for the 4th of July, but heat indices fall a little short of advisory criteria at this point. Smoke: Smoke models show elevated smoke impacting far N/NE WI through this afternoon, so have increased sky cover a little to account for this. There is a very small chance of near-surface smoke in the far north (mainly Vilas County) during the late morning and early afternoon, but confidence is too low to add to the forecast at this time. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Isolated showers northwest of GRB were gradually dissipating early this morning. Otherwise SCT-BKN mid-level clouds covered much of the forecast area. Patchy fog developed where skies were clear, but the fog was already starting to mix out. A mix of cumulus and altocumulus clouds will impact the region today, with prevailing VFR conditions. A stray shower or storm could develop in central WI this afternoon and evening, but these should not impact the TAF sites. Later tonight, an approaching warm front should cause showers and storms to gradually increase across the southwest half of the forecast area. Have added Prob30 groups for thunderstorms at RHI/AUW/CWA for the last few hours of the TAF period. Light NE-E winds will turn SE later today into tonight. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Kieckbusch