000
FXUS63 KGRB 121039
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
439 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT AS 150+ KNOT JET STREAK PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THIS JET STREAK SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW
WITH THIS FEATURE. FRIDAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE
FOR CHANCES OF SNOW...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE STILL MORE BULLISH WITH SNOW. ALSO...
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND COULD ADD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...SEVERAL CLIPPERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TRYING
TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFICULT SINCE FEATURES ARE WEAK
AND DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONG THE MODELS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD EXIT
EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 14Z-15Z. THE BAND OF SNOW HAS PRODUCED MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE MILES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...THINK LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
NORTH AS JET STREAK PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LIGHT SNOW
COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES BY MID TO LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH