000
FXUS63 KMPX 120835
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

ELEVATED CONVECTION SCATTERED ABOUT MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. HIRES MODELS INDICATE SOME FORM OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING....WITH PERHAPS REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS HIGHLY CAPPED OVER
THE FAR SOUTH...WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED. IF COMPLEX
DOES BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS DEVELOP
WITH THE SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z THU. WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND AS WELL...BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS DRIVEN
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A CLEARING SKY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.  GRADIENT
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
OVER THE WEST.  THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THAT REGION BY 12Z THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE EXTENDED RANGES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LITTERED WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS ACTIVE.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE DRY STINT WILL END ON FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW /MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ ENSUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEPICTED BY PROGGED 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/ETC AND THEIR ILLUSTRATIONS OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST MN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
POPS SEEM WARRANTED.

LESS CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO HAVE LIFTED INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE COLD
FRONT HAVING PASSED ACROSS AT LEAST A DECENT PORTION OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTH CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI/. SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING A DRY DAY FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PASSES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/MOISTURE IS LOW...SO POPS IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME
ARE IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE.

AFTER THE WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ATTENDANT WITH THE
ANTICIPATED PATTERN WOULD BE MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPROUTING UP
ACROSS THE AREA...SO INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT A FEW OF THE TAF
SITES WITH THE 03Z UPDATE. THE FEATURE THAT IS CAUSING THESE
SHOWERS DOES WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT WE COULD PROBABLY KEEP AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS ON THE RADAR SCOPE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. STILL
WATCHING FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
/PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN/ MINNESOTA BETWEEN 09-14Z. STILL THINKING AT
LEAST SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS KSTC...KMSP...AND KNRH WITH THE MORE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER.

KMSP...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN WITH THE EXPANDING
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...CIGS AND VIS COULD EASILY
REMAIN VFR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE STORMS STILL APPEAR
TO OCCUR BETWEEN 50-100 MILES SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...EVEN
AFTER THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES BY...THE AIRPORT WILL HAVE TO
DODGE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUALLY ADJUST THE TIMING AS THE
STORMS EVOLVE ON RADAR TO OUT WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. NW WIND 5KTS...VEERING E.
FRI...VFR. SE WIND 10-20KTS.
FRI NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE. TSRA POSSIBLE. S-SE 10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF