Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation discussion...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few snow showers are dropping southeast across northeast MN and
northwest/west central WI late this afternoon. Not too many obs
are reporting snow and dry air is likely the culprit. Those areas
that are reporting snow have seen visibilities drop to a mile or
two, however, which may allow for a quick dusting.

Any snow will end this evening as the short wave exits to the
east. Satellite is showing pretty quick clearing across the
eastern Dakotas, so expecting skies to become clear overnight as
a high pressure ridge passes by. After a weakness in the pressure
gradient tonight, southwest flow will resume for Thanksgiving Day.
Plenty of sun and relatively mild temperatures ranging from the
mid-upper 30s north of I-94 to nearing 50 downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge will make for a good day weatherwise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A potent storm system will propagate across southern Canada
Thursday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through
Friday. This front looks mostly dry with the best forcing to the
north and a lack of deep moisture to the south. The best chance of
any rain appears to be north of I-94, and especially across
northern MN and the U.P. of Michigan. Some mid level cloud cover
may accompany the front midday, but these should clear behind it
while warm temperatures aloft remain and deeper mixing arrives
Friday afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rise into the
50s across much of the region and even MOS is showing a strong
potential of this. Raised highs a bit for Friday.

A shot of cooler air will arrive for Saturday ahead of another
surface ridge set to park itself over the western Atlantic and mid
Atlantic states early next week. Sunday and particularly Monday
will be mild. In fact, some guidance are indicating 60s across
southern MN Monday. However, model consistency through next week
has been poor and has been in the Day 4-7 period for the last few
weeks. Thus, raised temps several degrees Sunday and Monday but
kept them well short of the actual potential given high model

GFS now favors a stronger northern system and swings a front
through here Monday evening with no hint at any system in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Many GEFS members agree, but there
are still a few hinting at some rain or snow Tuesday similar to
the Canadian. The ECMWF has slowed considerably and while it still
has a stronger system passing to the south eventually, it doesn`t
arrive until after the current forecast period. Bottom line here
is confidence is very low beyond Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will take on a
west/northwest direction overnight, and then become southwest
again for Thursday.

Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Winds SW 10 kts turning NW
with PM FROPA and increasing to 10-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.




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