000
FXUS63 KMPX 301140
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME CONCERN WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MN...AND DRIFTING TO THE E/NE ACROSS WC AND INTO CENTRAL/EC MN
DURING THE DAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE NORMAL DIURNAL MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THE CLDS TO DISSIPATE AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S/SW. ONLY KAXN/KRWF WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC OF MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 18Z. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE S/SE...INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW/W/NW OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN IS MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...COUPLED WITH CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP.
LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS THRU 18Z WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SE
ARND 5-8 KTS BY 18Z. DID INTRODUCE SCT020 THIS AFTN BASED ON SOME
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY
MVFR CIGS THRU 12Z/31. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW THIS
EVENING...THEN NW/NNW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS CAA
INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT EVENING...MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND N/NNE AT 10KT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN EARLY. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT