903
FXUS63 KMPX 252337
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
637 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch for much of central and southern Minnesota,
  and western Wisconsin until Thursday morning.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
  mainly southern Minnesota this evening.

- Widespread rainfall continues this afternoon with and additional
  1" to 3" expected. Locally higher amounts possible which
  could lead to localized flash flooding.

- Hot and humid this weekend with more storms possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are progressing east
across western WI with little activity behind it. Most of the
rain this evening will be across IA, but another disturbance
will track northeast Thursday and bring another round of
potentially heavy rain to mainly southern/eastern MN and WI
throughout the day. The Flood Watch is currently in effect
until 12Z Thursday when the next round is expected to arrive.
Will be assessing whether it should be cancelled for the rest of
the night or extended through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Heavy rainfall has spread across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin
since earlier this morning and is expected to continue into the
evening. Our first round of heavy precipitation was result of
an h850 wave that continues to move NE across central MN. This
wave as well as high pressure located over the TN Valley has
aided in providing the northern plains unseasonably high
moisture values. PWATs have ranged around 2" this afternoon
which indicates a tropical-like atmosphere. As for current rain
totals so far, interpolated rainfall totals range between 1 to 3
inches with a few locally higher amounts across western
Minnesota.

Across south-central Minnesota, a warm front continues to push its
way northward. Dew Points in the latest METARs especially along the
I-90 corridor will continue to creep into the into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. This along with some differential heating mixing in,
moderate instability ~1500 J/kg and adequate low-level shear
will aid support for convective initiation to where a few cells
could produce tornadoes. Thus, a Tornado Watch is in effect
until 10 PM tonight across southern MN and portions of western
WI.

Another round of heavy rainfall sets up Thursday morning where flash
flooding again could potentially be an issue. Especially if heavy
rain falls over areas that had seen rainfall from today. Although
the QPF maxima is more focused over eastern MN and western WI.
Regardless, most areas could expected to see an additional 1 to
3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. It
is expected that most of the rainfall tapers off from west to
east by Thursday evening. Come Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will make a run back towards the upper 80s and low
90s. Heat indices could even reach near 100 degrees across
western MN on Saturday. Our eyes will move towards our next
anticipated disturbance to track down from the NW over the
weekend. With the added heat, and instability, severe weather
continues to become increasingly likely. Still to soon to
determine specific impacts but one should make weekend plans
accordingly for the potential of stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms are east of all the TAF sites
except EAU. MVFR/IFR cigs will trend IFR area wide tonight with
some fog also possible. Another round of showers will push north
into southern MN late tonight, spreading northeast through the
day. IFR conditions are likely to continue with the showers.

KMSP...Should be quiet for much of the night with IFR cigs
developing. Some visibility reductions due to fog are possible.
The next round of rain is expected to arrive around 11Z and
persist on and off into Thursday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind W to NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-
     Le Sueur-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-
     Washington.
WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff