000
FXUS63 KMPX 301107
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
507 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME.
SPREADING MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST.  BAND OF
LOW LEVEL WAA CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  PRESENT MOVEMENT OF EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS WOULD
BING THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA BY 11Z.  MODELS SUGGEST THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD DROP OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THIS
WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE A BIT...BUT APPEARS WE SHOULD WARM THE THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 MOST AREAS.

QUESTION FOR THE COMING NIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF ANY LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH. THE 06Z NAM
AND LATEST SREF SHOW BEST POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.  WILL PLAY MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FOR NOW AND MONITOR TODAYS DEVELOPMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE NUMEROUS PERIODS WITH
SNOW AND/OR RAIN CHANCES...FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD TO END THE
WEEK. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK SYSTEM HAS NOT
INCREASED...IN FACT IT HAS GONE DOWN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
AT THIS POINT...MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BRING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HIGH
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE BITTER COLD...HOWEVER.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH STILL HUGGING THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FINGER OF VORTICITY WILL EXTEND DOWN ACROSS
NODAK AND INTO CENTRAL MN. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ON THE 295K SURFACE...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY MOIST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF AND POPS. COULD STILL SEE
SOME SNOW REACH THE GROUND AS GRADUAL SATURATION OCCURS NEAR THE
GROUND. THUS...PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND DID MAINTAIN 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHEST
ACROSS CENTRAL MN.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION/SHAPE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVE VERY IMPORTANT IN TIMING...WHERE THE SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK...THERMAL FIELDS...AND RESULTANT RAIN OR SNOW
CHANCES. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY NIGHT
THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE WHILE THE GEM IS THE LEAST. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM DEVELOPS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE INVERTED TROUGH FROM
NODAK INTO ALBERTA WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ACCOMPANYING
IT...EXTENDING INTO MN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE NAM/S TENDENCY TO OVERDEVELOP
ALOFT FEATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE 00Z GFS WAS ALSO THROWN OUT
DUE TO ITS VERY PROGRESSIVE LEAD TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESSENTIALLY SQUASHING ANY SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
BETWEEN THE REMAINING MODELS OF THE GEM AND ECMWF...THE ECMWF HAS
SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND STILL ADVERTISES AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS AND A MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY. PREFER THIS SOLUTION MOST FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.

THE FIRST GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FINGER OF VORTICITY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
BISECT THE CWA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD NOT BE AS DRY AND THINK A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT QUESTIONABLE WITH THE 0C ISOTHERM AT
925 MB INCHING INTO SOUTHWEST MN...BUT KEPT P-TYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW.
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OVER MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL/ERN MN AND WRN WI.

USING PRIMARILY THE EC FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUMPED TEMPS UP WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD BRING MILDER AIR IN. THIS RESULTED IN
MORE RAIN MIXING IN BY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT. EURO MOS GOES
FROM A HIGH OF 41 WED TO A LOW OF 9 AT MSP WED NIGHT. PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE.

BITTER COLD FOLLOWS FOR LATE WEEK. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER
AND WILL PROBABLY FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY...925
MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -15 TO -23C...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT MAYBE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS...20S...AND MAYBE LOW 30S BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

AREA OF CIGS 4-5K FEET HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...ABOUT ON
SCHEDULE. TIMING OF BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALL THAT
REMAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. WILL CONTINUE VFR INTO
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING INTO FAR NORTHERN
AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL MENTION MVFR AT KAXN DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z. ALSO...WILL MENIION SOME SCT015 AT KSTC/KRNH/KEAU LATE AS WELL.
SREF INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS THIS REGION AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

KMSP...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
MAINLY SKC-SCT250 OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT BR/6SM/ OR HAZE AROUND
SUNRISE BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY. LIGHT S-SW SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NW BY 17Z...AND MORE NORTHERLY INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS DURING PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN NITE...VFR...POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS LATE WITH -SN. WINDS E/SE AT 5
KTS.
MON...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING WITH -SN DEVELOPING. SE WINDS 10
KTS.
TUE...IFR/MVFR CIGS IN -SN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA BY AFTN.
SE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE