000
FXUS63 KMPX 030533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

MADE A QUICK GRIDDED AND TEXT UPDATE TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY
FOR THE ENTIRE WFO MPX CWFA THRU 15Z /9AM CST/ MON MRNG. WINDS
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EVEN DROP OFF TO
VALUES WHERE THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPS MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER...
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT LATTER SCENARIO AS BEING
LESS THE CASE AND INDICATE THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY
WITHIN THRESHOLD VALUES THRU THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WITH TEMPS AS COLD AS THEY ARE...EVEN THE LITTLEST OF
WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO 25 BELOW ZERO VALUES SO FELT MORE
COMFORTABLE HIGHLIGHTING SUCH VALUES IN THE ADVY THRU 9AM TMRW
MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE ACTIVE WX WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...JUST A GENTLE BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -25 TO -35F TONIGHT. BY
MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE WIND SPDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...OR
ALMOST THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMP. THEREFORE WILL END THE WIND
CHILL ADV FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR THE FAR
SE CWA TO CONTINUE THRU 3 AM AS WINDS REMAIN ABV 5 MPH. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO SET RECORD LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES...DEEP
SNOWPACK AND STRONG RADIATION COOLING WITH LEAD TO THIS SCENARIO.
CURRENT RECORD LOWS ARE ON MPX WEBSITE UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

A POTENT WX SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTN WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLDS TO INCREASE AFT DAWN WITH -SN
DEVELOPING IN NW/WC MN BY NOON...AND SPREADING E/SE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EC MN BY THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. A QUICK ONE HALF TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN CENTRAL MN...WITH ONLY A DUSTING NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 15-1 TO
25-1 RANGE. THEREFORE...ANY QPF WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS ARE FINALLY POINTING TO MODERATION IN THE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THIS ALONG WITH A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE FIRST SNOW EVENT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CWA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POP TREND OVER THIS REGION OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY...WITH FORCING DIRECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR
THE MORE COMPACT BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE LIGHT SNOW
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS ADDED HERE.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW
PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH YET
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH
COLUMBIA REGION...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  WILL HAVE TO COMPROMISE WITH MODELS THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND WILL TREND TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND TREND MORE OF A CHANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THU NITE
INTO FRI NITE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WILL MENTION JUST SNOW
FOR NOW...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DOES DRAW UP NICE THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING -SN TO NRN-CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI MON
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM HIGH TO LOW
DURG THE DAY TMRW...WITH KAXN-KSTC-KRNH-KEAU BEING THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THESE SITES...BECAUSE OF THE NW-
SE ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING -SN...WILL SEE AN INITIAL
DEGRADATION INTO MVFR RANGE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY NOT
LONG AFTER THE ONSET OF THE -SN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE -SN SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY
STILL BE MADE. KRWF IS WELL DISPLACED OF THE -SN BAND TO SHOW ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY DETERIORATION...AND KMSP LOOKS TO JUST RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW SO HAVE KEPT IT AS MVFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
INTO TMRW MRNG AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE REGION...RESUMING FROM
THE S DURG THE DAY TMRW IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR THRU THE DAY TMRW...THEN THE ISSUE BECOMES TRYING TO
TIME IN ANY POTENTIAL -SN...ESP AFTER 00Z. KMSP PER LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO GET A GLANCING BLOW OF THE HEAVIER BAND OF -SN
SO HAVE INDICATED A WINDOW OF MVFR CONDS IN THE LATER EVE HOURS.
THE -SN LOOKS TO THEN MOVE OUT...OR AT LEAST TRANSITION TO VFR-
VSBY -SHSN...WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS TO REMAIN AOB 10 KT...SHIFTING FROM W-NW
TNGT TO S BY TMRW AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC AFTN MVFR/-SN. WINDS ENE 5 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...MAINLY VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ041>045-047>070-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC