Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251628 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...

LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 STILL
SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. COULD SEE A
LITTLE DRIZZLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A
LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.  THE 700 MB RH DECREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT INCREASES AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE DRYING AGAIN TONIGHT.  MAIN STORY IS THE LOW
CLOUDS.  DRYING FROM ABOVE WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD FT THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT STRATUS POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE AND THE MOISTURE BELOW THE 1 THSD FOOT INVERSION
INCREASES.  THIS COULD CAUSE SOME DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  TEMPERATURES THERE MAY DROP JUST BELOW
FREEZING WITH MINIMAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTS GIVEN THE
RECENT RATHER WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FRIDAY WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET AND MILD OVER SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE LOW CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET... A
TIGHTENING 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI FRIDAY EVENING.
MANY MODELS ALSO SPREAD LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTHEAST WI FRI NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ECWMF IS
DRIER IN SOUTHEAST WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW... BUT EXPECT POPS
TO INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ALSO THE 06Z NAM ARE SLOWER WITH BRINGING THE
STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH WI SATURDAY MORNING THAN THE
GFS. WPC FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MEANS HIGHER QPF FOR
SOUTHEAST WI. I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE USING LIGHTER QPF THAN THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS. THE MODELS DO NOT LINGER THE PRECIP INTO THE EVENING
LIKE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO REMOVED POPS FOR SAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST WI
WILL FALL AS RAIN AND THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA... THE TEMP PROFILE IS COLDER AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT... LESS THAN 0.15 INCH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS NORTHWEST OF MADISON.

THE ECWMF HANGS ONTO THE LIGHT PRECIP LONGER IN SOUTHEAST WI THAN
THE GFS ON SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
STEADY TEMPS AROUND 30 THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY AND
MAYBE MONDAY... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER WHICH MEANS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN ON A SHORTWAVE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS LOOKING DRIER NOW.

THE ARCTIC AIR NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. PLAN ON FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOWER LEVEL INVERSION LOWERS.   MAIN STORY IS
THE LOW CLOUDS.  DRYING FROM ABOVE WITH THE INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD
FT THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT STRATUS POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND THE MOISTURE BELOW THE 1 THSD
FOOT INVERSION INCREASES.  THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME IFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON.
TEMPERATURES THERE MAY DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING WITH MINIMAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTS GIVEN THE RECENT RATHER WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...

WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING SO WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC


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