Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010152 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY IN THE NEAR-TERM...BUT
OVERALL NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD TIME INTO FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST...THOUGH
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES IN LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SRN WI
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING IN THE EAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 12
MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR EAST...THEN EASE OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES
IN.

&&

.MARINE...

WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A GUST OR TWO THAT REACH/EXCEED 22
KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY WILL NOT BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SO WILL LET IT EXPIRE
AT 02Z.

&&

.BEACHES...

WILL LET BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT AS WINDS AND
WAVES ARE LOWERING BELOW HIGH SWIM RISK LEVELS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GROUND TRUTH FOR THE RADAR RETURNS DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DRY OUT PRIOR TO THE WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
COMBAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO SHOULD SEE LOWS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. THUS OPTED TO LEAVE FROST MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

BULK OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE
HIGHER THAN TODAY...SO ENDED UP WITH FORECAST HIGHS JUST A LITTLE
ABOVE WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS EXPANDS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES.
A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPRESSION FROM HIGH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUALY WARMING TREND.  LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW 925H TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 10 TO 15C
RANGE ON TUE AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON WED.  SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM WEAKENING APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF MAY SPILL INTO SRN WI
ON WED.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S AT
NIGHT...EVEN IN MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOWER AREAS SO NO LATE NIGHT FROST
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD.
WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR FIRST FEW PERIODS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER SELY FLOW NOW LOOKING TO HAVE GREATER
IMPACT.  STILL EXPECT LONG WAVE RIDGING TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GTLAKES TO FLATTEN OUT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...SUCCUMBING TO AMPLYING TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS.  PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THIS UPSTREAM TROF WL CONTRIBUTE TO
FLATTENING RIDGE. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NRN GTLAKES
APPEARS QUITE WEAK...WHILE SECOND WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF WI. COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND AN INCH LATER THU.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH...WL CARRY LOW
POPS FOR THU INTO FRI.

SRN PLAINS RIDGE RE-EXPANDS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST STEERING WINDS USHERING BACKDOOR CDFNT
ACROSS GTLAKES IN THU NGT/FRI PERIOD.  NOT ALOT OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO WL KEEP ONLY LOW CHC POPS GOING.  NEARBY SFC RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES RESULTING IN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LOWERED POPS ON
SATURDAY...AND NEXT SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP ENTIRELY.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW STRONGER SHORT WAVE BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND
INCREASING CONVECTION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ALL-IN-
ALL...LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT PERIOD WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY JUNE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WAVES WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AND INTO THE EVENING SOUTH OF THERE. THUS
THE ADVISORY END TIMES WERE LEFT AS IS.

BEACHES...

HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.  THE DRIVING
FORCE BEHIND THE DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH.  THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.  ONSHORE
FLOW TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER UNDER LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK



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