Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250940
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC


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